"Either way, though, there's no getting around the fact that declaring victory with simply a majority of pledged delegates qualifies as moving the goal posts and changing the rules in the middle of the game, something Obama supporters have long chided the Clinton campaign for doing."
It's a pretty decent claim though. "We've won the majority of delegates from all DNC sanctioned elections," puts a very high burden on the SDs to flip it.
Even with a compromise with MI/FL, Obama would have a 27 delegate buffer with that projection to absorb a little damage.
Oh, for the record, my problem wasn't as much Clinton moving the goalposts as moving them in bizarre directions. The popular vote argument would have a case. The popular vote argument with FL has less of one. Throw in MI too, giving Obama 0 votes, and it gets really bizarre.
There's nothing wrong with spinning, but I want my intelligence to be a least somewhat respected by the spinsters.
Considering they kept says 2025 for months and... well not surprised.
Any fantasy that Hillary may have of stringing this out until the Convention in Denver is going by the way-side in early June, no matter what Bubba may be telling her. You will see her recognize this inescapable fact and bow out in early June.
The Supers simply don't want to wait 3 months while John McCain piles up an insurmountable lead, simply so that Hillary can have one last savage run up the mountain, rolling that stone uphill for all she's worth.
They are ready to end it and they will end it by moving to Obama in massive numbers by the end of June at the latest. A lot of them are only waiting until May 20 to have some political cover to come out for Obama.
Meanwhile the negative publicity on Hillary in the press and among party members would be astronomical if Hillary tries to tough it out. If she thinks things are hot NOW this is NOTHING to what the incoming fire from every angle will be like by July 1, if she just goes to ground in the bunker and tries to stave off the storming of Berlin. The press, just for starters, will be absolutely merciless.
You are seeing the hand-writing on the wall when George McGovern defects.
The hand-writing says: "Mene, Mene, Tekel" BTW: "You have been judged and found wanting."
According to DemConWatch's numbers, Obama has 1712.5 delegates right now (if Obama gets Michigan's 55 uncommitted delegates and the 67 he won in Florida's primary) That's gotta be Hillary's best case scenario (unless she really thinks that Obama won't get any of Michigan's uncommitted delegates).
Thus, if Obama's predictions stand he will have 1776.5 by May 20. (I do think he's a bit too optimistic in KY and WV, though). That leaves him just 7.5 delegates short of your standard of 1784 pledged delegates. So in Hillary's best-case scenario (and accepting Obama's predictions), Obama will clinch the nomination either on May 31 (if the Committee accepts any solution other than Hillary's best case) or on June 1 when Obama will surely win the 7.5 delegates he needs to get to 1784.
I think the best you can argue is that Obama will call the race too early by 1.5 weeks because he's short 7.5 delegates. That's a little nit-picky, dontcha think?
Good comment, but one quibble: I think the popular vote metric is fatally flawed because it dramatically undercuts support coming from caucus states. Minnesota, to pick one example, is a big state with a lot of delegates, but if you go by Obama's popular vote margin there, Minnesota's power to help select a nominee is slashed. That's not fair to Minnesota.
We should all remember that, so long as they thought they were going to win on pledged delegates, the Clinton campaign repeatedly emphasized that this was a contest over delegates. And they used the number 2025, over and over, for months.
When a metric turns against them, they switch. That's why you won't hear much about the popular vote--not after NC. Instead, they're trying to forestall the inevitable.
according to the rules that will be in place at that point in time, he will have garnered more than half the available pledged delegates.
You need all the delegates. A majority is like calling the game at third quarter.
If no candidate has 2,025 it goes to a second convention ballot.
This is so tortoise-and-hare of him, and it will backfire. He will even make a good hare in a political cartoon. He is crazy for doing this!
I couldn't disagree with you more. In fact, if Obama didn't declare victory, the media would jump on him about letting Clinton control the message and the framing. Then we'd get more insinuations about how she's the one who's the real fighter in this race. And Carville would up the ante by claiming that she actually has cojones all over her body, like some bizarrely hermaphroditic fertility god/dess. Mark my words.
When he does this, he will frame it as the voters having spoken. And it's true. It's also true that the SD's could counter the voice of the voters, but he'll point out how undemocratic that would be.
Then you can rub it in how bad it backfired.
You have to earn it - read "Speaker of the House" by Tip O'Niel. Voters want to be asked for their votes. He's got it in the bag, why must he do this? Because he wants a vacation? If he's too tired to clinch the nomination, he doesn't have the stamina to be president.
Very unbecoming of him.
Voters resented Hillary when she was "inevitable" and him moving the bar up to 1,600 nullifies his criticism of Hillary.
Tone deaf.
no point playing like either of us can see into the future, so let's just revisit it when you've been proved right.
Let him declare whatever he wants. All that counts as facts/numbers/math/the winning margin in the end is Who Actually Produces the Legal Magic Number at the roll call of the states here in Denver in late August. (My goodness, I can't even remember 4 months ago...I wonder what the facts on the ground will actually be 4 months hence.)
So basically you want to leave a mere 2 months for the actual campaign against the Republicans. Just September and October.
While throughout Summer, the Republicans alongside Hillary will both be attacking the man you KNOW will be our nominee. You KNOW it'll be Obama.
Of course at this point making Obama lose has become Clinton's goal, just so she has a chance at 2012.
