Thank you for this excellent analysis, Texas Darlin'.
Bottom line: Obama can't close the deal.
Team Clinton is just playing out the final two minutes of a game it's trailing by 20. She might score a few more baskets but the scrubs have taken the floor.
Heh.. I'm from Kansas, and we know how to win, especially when folks on the other team keep missing free shots.
you should surely know you need a miracle comeback if you letting the other team go on a massive run in the middle of the game. Tarheels didn't choke last night like they did in April.
Nice try, but no.
Final Results -- -- 50.7 49.3 Clinton +1.4
RCP Average 05/02 - 05/05 -- 49.0 44.0 Clinton +5.0
Zogby Tracking 05/04 - 05/05 644 LV 43 45 Obama +2.0 InsiderAdvantage 05/04 - 05/04 502 LV 48 44 Clinton +4.0 SurveyUSA 05/02 - 05/04 675 LV 54 42 Clinton +12.0 Suffolk 05/03 - 05/04 600 LV 49 43 Clinton +6.0 PPP (D) 05/03 - 05/04 851 LV 51 46 Clinton +5.0 Zogby Tracking 05/03 - 05/04 636 LV 42 44 Obama +2.0 ARG* 05/02 - 05/04 600 LV 53 45 Clinton +8.0 Zogby Tracking 05/02 - 05/03 559 LV 41 43 Obama +2.0 Zogby Tracking 05/01 - 05/02 629 LV 42 43 Obama +1.0 Insider Advantage 04/30 - 05/01 478 LV 47 40 Clinton +7.0 Downs Center 04/28 - 04/30 689 LV 52 45 Clinton +7.0 Zogby Tracking 04/30 - 05/01 680 LV 42 42 Tie Rasmussen 04/29 - 04/29 400 LV 46 41 Clinton +5.0 ARG* 04/30 - 05/01 600 lV 53 44 Clinton +9.0 TeleResearch 04/25 - 04/29 943 LV 48 38 Clinton +10.0 PPP (D) 04/27 - 04/28 1347 LV 50 42 Clinton +8.0 SurveyUSA 04/25 - 04/27 628 LV 52 43 Clinton +9.0 Howey-Gauge 04/23 - 04/24 600 LV 45 47 Obama +2.0 ARG* 04/23 - 04/24 600 LV 50 45 Clinton +5.0 Research 2000 04/23 - 04/24 400 LV 47 48 Obama +1.0 Indy Star/Selzer 04/20 - 04/23 535 LV 38 41 Obama +3.0 Downs Center 04/14 - 04/16 578 LV 45 50 Obama +5.0 LA Times/Bloomberg 04/10 - 04/14 554 LV 35 40 Obama +5.0 SurveyUSA 04/11 - 04/13 571 LV 55 39 Clinton +16.0 ARG* 04/02 - 04/03 600 LV 53 44 Clinton +9.0 Research 2000 03/31 - 04/02 400 LV 49 46 Clinton +3.0 SurveyUSA 03/29 - 03/31 530 LV 52 43 Clinton +9.0
Great post. As usual around here, posts containing factual information that destroys the diarist's premise are simply ignored.
Top line - everywhere: Obama is closing the deal.
Anymore baseless assertions to share?
KnowVox, please keep up the good entertainment.
Obama can't close the deal, please give us more 1 line zingers like that.
Read this: http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/15/1427 30/254
Obama can't close the deal, which is why he LOST in Indiana, despite having the home court Chicago media advantage and outspending HRC 2-1 and 3-1.
He's such a naughty boy, outspending Hillary, and even worse: SPENDING OTHER PEOPLE'S MONEY.
1.5 million people have contributed to his campaign, and what does he do - spend it on winning the primaries? How dare he.
And how dare he bribe superdelegates by contributing to their down ticket campaigns too.
It's outrageous. Campaign finance should be raised by a few rich donors, who then go on paying a few rich lobbyists and media corporations. That's the way it's done. That's the way to make America more democratic and responsible,
MEMO TO OBAMA: stop spending other people's money. Try spending some of your own
I think Obama might even try the ssame tactic in the general election and outspend his opponent!Dirty, cheatin', arugala-eatin' uppity black man!
er, he did not outspend her 2:1, let alone 3:1 in IN. Can you come up with a credible source for that bit of questionable information?
Why do they ignore the fact that Obama is forking out HUGE amounts of money? He's outspending 2/3 to 1 and he still lost Indiana. Is that their idea of closing the deal?
Not only does he utilize his superior campaign donations, but he also gives inspiring speeches and registers thousands of new voters! I hate it when he wins dirty!
you're making the Obama supporters' argument for them - Hillary can't raise enough money to win against Obama - how is she supposed to beat the VRWC if she can't raise the money? Hmmmm?
There sure are a ton of blacks in Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Kansas, North Dakota, Idaho, etc.
Want to make up some more facts?
Were not most of these wins in states like IA, MN, NE, KS, ND, and ID by Obama due to the rigged caucus process?, which TX proved to everyone! I do not think any of these states like IA, MN, NE, KS, ND, and ID have huge AA populations like they do in SC, NC, GA, MS, AL, LA. Most of these deep southern states have not been carried by a Democrat since the Civil Rights Act of 1964 passed. They all went Republican and will do so again in November. I do not see Obama winning any of the states in the South that I listed here!
This election should have been a slamdunk for the Dems in 2008, but now race and gender has raised its ugly head in our party giving McCain a sure win in November. It makes one want to weep.
and we're going to win NC this year. NC is lead by the nose by VA and VA is goimg Dem this year if only to elect their oh-so popular former governor Mark Warner.
I don't know where you get your information. North Carolina is not Virginia. The heavy AA vote can win the primary for you but the general is a totally different game. Obama will not win N.C. If he's the nominee, McCain will take N.C. I made calls here for three weeks. And I heard it over and over and over - from Democrats - they'll vote for McCain if Obama's the nominee.
By the fact that NC has always throughout its history voted as VA, from presidential elections to the constitutional amendments. Check out a political history of NC.
Who in the heck started throwing snot around! Good lord! Clean it up!
Don't forget my state, WI. Everyone always forgets us and we are actually one of the larger states. We are mostly white and Obama won almost 60% of the vote here.
There's about as many blacks in Utah as there are Clinton supporters there--almost none.
Let's count some states with a huge AA population:
WA,ID,MN,ND,WI,MA,NH,CO,UT,NV,WY,HI...
off the top of my head.
Alaska. I've heard it's like Detroit North.
East St. Louis. Mos def.
Should we not be counting Black Democrats votes?
Maybe the Democratic Party should have a "White" pre-primary. Once the Dem Party has established the stronger candidate with "White" voters then Blacks could either ratify the choice or skip the primary.
Would that kind of voting system be an improvement in your mind?
A new item in the list of conditions under which Hillary would already be the nominee: if African American votes only counted 3/5.
Obama is closing the deal everywhere? Like Calif, Tex, Ohio, Penn, Fla., Indiana, NJ?
Except that he'll likely win 3, if not for of them.
Even scarier, he's closing the deal in states Democrats never win in the general.
Thats only if you use old election maps..
Obama and his netroots campaign have redrawn the electoral map. In most states I believe that registered Democrats now outnumber republicans.
Hillary's focus is only on the handful of big states.. the non latte sippers( Like New York and California.. those latte haters?) Obama will bring many more states into play. You see its a change in how politics is done..
We can stick to the old and obviously loosing, big state strategy, like Clinton... or we can embrace the new changing American population and attitude which will redraw the US electoral Map a lovely shade of blue this November.
Then why is McCain beating him in MA of all places and most other states in polls now? One of the most Dem states in the union like MA that even McGovern won in 1972!
if you look at the graph jerome so kindly supplies, you'll see that you are talking out of your ass. and the mass poll is an outlier. every other poll i've seen has him winning comfortably.
Your in la la land! Dream on!
this is only wishful, utopian thinking. Get a grip on reality. Obama will not win states like NC in the fall, no matter how much you wish it to be true.
This looks like fun, lets play a game. You name a state where Hillary closed the deal, then I name a state where Obama has. Back and forth and I bet you run out of states long before I do. Also nice call on Texas, though I don't know if I'd count a -5 delegate shift is a win. FL doesn't count either, wanna name more big states?
A deal isn't closing, it's closed, That's like the check is in the mail. in the haste to bully Hilary off the court the press has called her demise more than once, but this really is the question. We do need a candidate who has the best chance to win against McCain, and the race isn't over. Chill out whoever you are, there is more to come.
You got that right, KV. Thanks.
What's it say that he's beating HRC in a race where she started with advantages in fundraising, name recognition, national networking and superdelegate support?
And Hillary has no clue how to make one in the first place.
