Well, I live in a left leaning area, so the Republicans I know tend toward the centrist/moderate end rather than the winger 'hate all libruls' end of the political specrum, so no doubt that explains the difference in our anecdotes. Of course neither Obama nor Clinton will drag over huge numbers of Republicans, but I think both will get crossovers if only because the Republican brand is so damaged.
As for Pennsylvania, the polls show Obama able to win against McCain there, and that is even before any post nomination bump. McCain has tied himself rather closely to Bush and his policies. Once we get past the nomination and really start hammering that home, I think you'll see the poll numbers in almost every state move in our favor. I also think the polls will fall short of predicting the size of the final win, because polls are notoriously bad at predicting turnout, and there is a big enthusiasm gap this time around.
We just need to stay calm, stay focused, and stay united. Work your ass off trying to get your candidate nominated, and then work your ass of trying to get the Democrat elected. The Republicans are hoping for a divided Democratic party to save their collective ass in November. I don't plan to oblige them.
I'd feel a lot safer with Hillary as far as Pennsylvania goes in the GE. These Hillary supporters who say they will back McCain in the fall...
In the blogosphere, they're but a statistic. In fact, it's sometimes posited that they don't really exist or that they are bluffing and just mentioning them is part of a pro-Hillary-conspiracy to scare the party into nominating her.
But to me, these people are my friends, my coworkers, and my family. The phenomenon is very real.
A Dem can't win Pennsylvania without enormous margins in Philadelphia city, a big boost from the suburbs, a boost from Pittsburgh, a boost from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, and a tiny boost from Lehigh Valley (Allentown/Bethlehem).
Older voters are very receptive to McCain's appeal. Even the little "Mc" is a boost in PA because its has so many old-school style ethnicity/identity politics and the state has an overwhelming Irish population.
The Dem convention bounce will vanish a week after it appears and negative ads (Rampant in PA!) will saturate.
I always shill for the Dem candidate and have been involved with campaigns but if Obama wins, it's going to be awful with me cause I don't like or trust him in my heart. If I were doing pro-Obama spins, they would sound half-hearted, because they would be exactly that: half-hearted. And knowing the culture here in Eastern PA, I don't think they'd be well received except in Philadelphia city.
I am sure there would be some disapointed voters on either side who will stay home or even vote McCain in the GE if their candidate loses the primary... but I can't see that as being a huge factor or the numbers would look different in the head-to-head polling match-ups against McCain. And I agree Clinton would do better in PA, but I don't agree that it is out of reach for Obama.
As for not liking or trusting Obama... I won't try to sway you on that. Those sorts of subjective judjments come from a lot of complex factors that are usually unique for each person. Those feelings are often amplified and solidified in the heat of a campaign and are not easily changed even after the fires die down.
Perhaps the best I can hope for is that, should Clinton not be the nominee, you are still willing to step back and take an objective look at Obama vs McCain and see who the better choice is and vote accordingly. I will certainly do the same in the reverse situation.
As it stands right now, I can't vote for McCain. I've long been a moderate independent voter and even respected McCain for some of his moderate views and willingness to work with Dems (i.e. his collaboration with my Senator, Russ Feingold), but his embracing of Bush's agenda and surrounding himself with neocons has made him a non-choice for me. I disagree with Clinton on some policy issues and on the DLC rejection of the 50 state strategy, but I still recognize that she is a waaaaay better choice than McCain. I think an objective look at Obama reveales that he is also.
Peace
Thank you for your input.
Your calm objectivity is exactly the kind of approach that appeals to the possibility of a changed mind.
If only all our candidate discussions could be like this.
Cheers
