but all this talk based on Obama campaign's leaked spreadsheet is getting ridiculous. Who knows who made that spreadsheet? It could've been some intern shuffling numbers around on a spreadsheet.
Making a big fuss of expectations based on something like that is good fun/spin, but making serious assertions based on it doesn't make for good reporting or journalism.
correct. Unless somebody somewhere had some kind of polling out of Guam that showed Obama widely expected to win, all we have is demographic projections (not really reliable in a race like this), and the gut feelings of volunteers.
It appears that elderly voters (her demographic) may have come out in full force for clinton in unexpected numbers. Good for her, but that's a GOTV issue that has no bearing on momentum either way.
New liberal, I have to correct you on your tagline.
It's simply incorrect.
w/ FL and caucus estimates, it is Obama +317,000 (1%)
w/ FL, caucus estimates, and MI, it is Clinton +11,000 (0.03%)
If you are going to make a tagline, at least try to have it correct? ok?
I appreciate your thoughts about it, but here is how one can arrive at the numbers in my sigline (which links to my diary which is longer than the excerpt below):
Can Clinton Win the Popular Vote? by BooMan23 Wed Apr 23, 2008 But, then, the popular vote isn't a fair measure in any case. If it were, Obama would have spent all his time in cities (where the votes are) rather than campaigning in Alaska and Idaho. RCP has the announced popular vote from every state that has provided those numbers. Obama leads by this measure by 500,000 votes. RCP also estimates that Obama won the combined contests in Iowa, Nevada, Maine, and Washington by about 110,000 votes. So, excluding Michigan and Florida, Obama has a popular vote lead of 610,000 votes. It's not really fair to assume that Obama would have only received 35% of the vote in Florida if he had been permitted to campaign there, but for simplicity we'll give Clinton her full measure of votes from the Sunshine State. That leaves her with a deficit of 316,000 popular votes. What can we do about Michigan? Clinton received 55% of the vote in Michigan and 'uncommitted' received 40%. But according to the exit polls, the people, if given the option, would have voted: Clinton 46% Obama 35% Edwards 12% There's no perfect solution for counting the popular vote in Michigan, but the exit polls give us something to work with. With 594,000 votes cast, the exit polls project: Clinton 273,146 Obama 207,900 Edwards 71,280 This gives Clinton another 65,000 votes. So, based on the best available evidence and a fair determination of the rules, Obama currently has a 251,000 lead in the popular vote.
But, then, the popular vote isn't a fair measure in any case. If it were, Obama would have spent all his time in cities (where the votes are) rather than campaigning in Alaska and Idaho. RCP has the announced popular vote from every state that has provided those numbers. Obama leads by this measure by 500,000 votes. RCP also estimates that Obama won the combined contests in Iowa, Nevada, Maine, and Washington by about 110,000 votes. So, excluding Michigan and Florida, Obama has a popular vote lead of 610,000 votes.
It's not really fair to assume that Obama would have only received 35% of the vote in Florida if he had been permitted to campaign there, but for simplicity we'll give Clinton her full measure of votes from the Sunshine State. That leaves her with a deficit of 316,000 popular votes. What can we do about Michigan?
Clinton received 55% of the vote in Michigan and 'uncommitted' received 40%. But according to the exit polls, the people, if given the option, would have voted:
Clinton 46% Obama 35% Edwards 12%
There's no perfect solution for counting the popular vote in Michigan, but the exit polls give us something to work with. With 594,000 votes cast, the exit polls project:
Clinton 273,146 Obama 207,900 Edwards 71,280
This gives Clinton another 65,000 votes. So, based on the best available evidence and a fair determination of the rules, Obama currently has a 251,000 lead in the popular vote.
You should try realclearpolitics.com
They have a good site to give you a better insight into the numbers.
