I've done a little analysis of Congressional wave elections from Strauss and Howe's Generations that might give some insight:
Generation First Birth Year Wave Election Years to Wave Election Lost 1881 1930 49 G. I. 1901 1958 57 Silent 1925 1974 49 Baby Boomers 1943 1994 51
Now, for Gen X:
Based on minimum of 49 years from the First Birth Year to the year of the wave election: 2010 49 Or, using the average of 51.5 years (skewed by the abnormally long 57 year time span of the G. I. generation): 2012 (A) 51.5
The historical analysis suggests a Congressional "wave election" would be likely in either 2010 or 2012.
But, something is different this time:
Subtract three years since the 26th Amendment granting 18 to 21 year olds the vote: 2008 (B) 47 or: 2010 (C) 48.5
Notes: (A) Rounded down from 2012.5 to the nearest election. (B) Rounded up from 2007 to the next election (C) Rounded up from 2009.5 to the nearest election
Accounting for the 26th Amendment seems to confirm that 2006 was the "wave election" and two years is a reasonable adjustment.
It is easy to extrapolate to the Presidency for the first two waves of 1930 and 1958 with the White House changing over in the next election (1932 and 1960), but not as easy for the 1974 and 1996 waves. Nevertheless, the historical parallel is the 1930 Congressional wave election and the 1932 Presidential election, since that time period corresponds to leading phase of a Crisis Era, as we are in now. So, a shift of power in the White House should be likely this year. Given the overwhelming size of the Millennial Generation, some extra "street hustle" can guarantee that shift this November.
But there's an additional issue. People are living longer now than they were ever before in the last 230 years of the US. I think that might have something to do with pushing the wave back further.
Much to the dismay of many, the first year baby boomers are 62 and will be voting strong another 25-30 years and the younger boomers much beyond. My parents generation is still going rather strong although not for long and this big block of millennials some aren't of voting age for another 13 years.
