Interesting on how Hillary loses 12 straight contests and she's, "Still in it!"
But Obama loses a couple of states, and, "Why can't he close the deal?"
Some double standard.... she can lose the majority of primaries and caucuses, but he has to go undefeated for the media to be happy...
Not to state the completely friggin obvious, but HE'S the one who has been saying he has this race locked up, not her. And HIS supporters are the ones crowing all over the internets about how the "math" means the race is over, not hers. So the only one to ask the question "Why can't he close this deal?" is Barack Obama. No other candidate for president in his position (clear delegate lead, massive fundraising advantage, lots of chatter about how his opponent can't win) has been unable to end the race in short order. What's wrong?
I'll tell you what's wrong. A big chunk of the Dem base just won't vote for him. And I'm not confident they'll show up in November.
In 2004, there were 6% of democrats who voted for Bush. I fully expect that intelligent electorate to fully vote for McCain and give or take an additional 4%. The good thing for Obama is Independents favor him over McCain so he can overcome that deficit quite soundly.
Obama can't close the deal because he can't close his margin among white women. He lost white women again by something like 67% to 33%. Neither Obama nor Clinton will be able to deliver a knock out punch. We will just have to wait till June, for the super delegates to decide.
Can you cite to where Obama said the race is locked up? I think he has consistently said that this was going to be a long hard race.
The reason that he loses big Dem states like Penn and OH is because that is where the Democratic party has the most institutional infrastructure and most of the party insiders like Hillary better. Watch what happens to the "big chunk if the Dem base" in NC, outside the influence of this political infrastructure, for a better gauge of whether Obama can win them over.
That doesn't play into their vision of Obama as an arrogant jerk that is trying to steal her rightful place as nominee.
He had pretty much implied it when he had that blasé tone in announcing that Clinton shouldn't feel "forced" to drop out.
Well, thats how I would expect Clinton here to read that statement.
I don't think it is any secret that both candidates wanted the race done quickly when it looked like they would win. I don't remember any complaints around here when Clinton said it would be over by Feb 5.
Where did she say that?
A very weak statement- he had "pretty much" implied- he was basically, almost, sort of pregnant.
Okay, so then he didn't mean anything by saying Hillary Clinton shouldn't feel forced to drop out. He just felt it important to announce that for no reason whatsoever.
"A big chunk of the Dem base just won't vote for him. And I'm not confident they'll show up in November."
There is no part of the Dem "base" that won't vote for him. There are outliers--the "Reagan Democrats"--the ones who voted for W twice--who won't vote for him.
They will be replaced by the millions of new voters that Obama brings in. The brain-donors who vote against their economic interests can reap the benefits of that.
No guarantee that those "new voters" that Obama brought in would go out and vote in November.
These are people for Obama, not necessarily for the Democratic Party. That may pose a problem in November.
is working class voters, other than African Americans.
I'm just gonna put this on a macro because it bears repeating.
Because?
Because Obama can't improve his standing in that demographic between now and November?
Given his improvement in most demographics that have gone heavily for Clinton in the weeks between OH and PA, it sure seems like he might have a chance to improve his standing in the months befoe November:
OH PA
60 and older 28 38 White 34 38 White men 39 44 White women 31 34 Less than $50K 42 46 No college 40 38 College 51 49 Catholic 36 31 Protestant 36 53
"These are people for Obama, not necessarily for the Democratic Party. That may pose a problem in November."
Only if the nomination is taken from him.
Wait -- I thought that he won 11 straight contests, and those included such all-important contests as the U.S. Virgin Islands and Democrats Abroad primaries. (Not that I dismiss the voters in these contests, but there aren't many of them and I don't think they could turn the election to McCain the way voters from swing states like Ohio, PA, Florida, etc. could.)
yes... but aren't Hillary supporters counting on Puerto Rico to give her a nomination clinching victory???
