"A big chunk of the Dem base just won't vote for him. And I'm not confident they'll show up in November."
There is no part of the Dem "base" that won't vote for him. There are outliers--the "Reagan Democrats"--the ones who voted for W twice--who won't vote for him.
They will be replaced by the millions of new voters that Obama brings in. The brain-donors who vote against their economic interests can reap the benefits of that.
No guarantee that those "new voters" that Obama brought in would go out and vote in November.
These are people for Obama, not necessarily for the Democratic Party. That may pose a problem in November.
is working class voters, other than African Americans.
I'm just gonna put this on a macro because it bears repeating.
Because?
Because Obama can't improve his standing in that demographic between now and November?
Given his improvement in most demographics that have gone heavily for Clinton in the weeks between OH and PA, it sure seems like he might have a chance to improve his standing in the months befoe November:
OH PA
60 and older 28 38 White 34 38 White men 39 44 White women 31 34 Less than $50K 42 46 No college 40 38 College 51 49 Catholic 36 31 Protestant 36 53
"These are people for Obama, not necessarily for the Democratic Party. That may pose a problem in November."
Only if the nomination is taken from him.
