I expect a couple-point late break for Clinton, putting her up about 9-10 points.
If Obama can keep it to single digits, I think he will have done well. Anything over 10 and the media will spin it as a win for Clinton. Anything over 15 is pretty disastrous for Obama in the media.
Of course, it's all moot because even a 15-point Clinton win will pretty much leave the popular vote out of range for her, and won't move the pledge delegates much at all.
This is pretty close to right. Obama will, I think, hold it to single digits. But even if it's 15% the downside for him isn't that he is any risk of losing the nomination -- it's just that Clinton will continue to be around driving up his negatives.
There are two questions: first, will the Clinton margin be enough to influence the NC and Indiana votes. Even at 15% I think that the impact is marginal at best. Second, who will have moved their margin in pledged delegates after PA, NC and IN have all voted. I think it's likely that the delegate margins will not have changed much -- up or down +/-10.
