There is one important reason why I believe PA will be a double digit win for Clinton. Since April 1, every poll has Obama at 45% or lower. In fact, he has been consistently at 40%-43%. Considering Clinton wins late decider's (about 10% of the voters make up their minds on the last day), I think she will win PA by 10%-12%. This is not the south where Obama outperforms his poll numbers, this is Hillaryland.
I agree with your sound analysis.
If this were in one of his strength states, like NC will be, and she were unable to crack 43 consistently (as she has not), I would not put a lot of stock in polls that show them "tied."
