The poll to watch in PA is the Franklin & Marshall one. They have been good the last couple cycles (i.e. Rendell v. Swann and Casey v. santorum). Pretty good in the GE in 2004 as well.

And I don't think you can argue with Survey USA's track record either.

Franklin & Marshall and SurveyUSA diverge, so something has to give. I would be willing to guess that it is somewhere in between, probably Clinton by 10 or so.