Alaska is an extremely difficult state to poll, and the polling invariably overstates Democratic support. desmoinesdem and others have already mentioned that.

I discovered it nearly a decade ago and it's been profitable. Tony Knowles virtually never matched his poll numbers. In '04 he led literally every poll for a year vs. Lisa Murkowski, then was routinely dismissed on election night. The earliest tally went severely for Murkowski and nothing changed all night. Knowles was favored.

In '04, Fran Ulmer polled close to the elder Murkowski in infrequent polling, then was avalanched.

In '06 Intrade actually had the Democratic ticket a substantial favorite to win the gov race at one point. I jumped all over that, since it looked like Palin and not Murkowski would claim the GOP primary.

I can't look at any Alaska statewide poll without applying a PAN (Partisan Adjustment Number) of at least 4 red.