Yeah, he's linking to Ohio.
I would personally really like to see a Dem path to victory that does not include having to win Ohio and/or Florida. I'm damn sick of those two states and their conservative values. Thankfully I think both Clinton and Obama do have such paths.
I see Obama's - MO, CO, NC, GA, probably NV as well. He can't count on FL to win, and I think OH is iffier than many Obama supporters would like to believe.
Can you outline Clinton's? I want to believe it exists, but I'm not seeing it. Every outline I've seen so far of a Clinton path to 270 votes depends on FL and OH.
We shouldn't forget possible pickups in New Mexico, Virginia, and a couple of the EVs in Nebraska. Some more states that would at least be competitive include Texas (!), Louisiana, and (maybe) one or both of the Dakotas.
Ohio is 20 EVs. A candidate could offset a loss in Ohio by winning, for example, New Mexico, Virginia, and two electoral votes in Nebraska.
Also see below i think VA will be a really hard state for both BO and HRC. It is still redish and southern VA is really conservative. It also has a really big number of military voters and McCain is going to get them big time. As i say below BO has to win all of gores states plus NH and then either NV or CO. My guess is CO is his best chance. But he is going to have to tone down gun control, afirmative action, and gay marrage or McCain will slowly pull ahead there. If is a very libertian state so Gun and Gays are still important but much less into the God vote.
david
IMHO BO only chance to win the WH requires him winning CO. And i assume both candidates are at 264 which are all the states Gore won plus NH. In this model i assume BO wins PA and MI and i think that very likely. And lets all agree Howard Dean was really smart to hold the convention in Denver. IHMO BO has no chance of winning MO, NC, or GA. And i think VA is a real long shot as well. I guess you could include NV (5) and that would give him 269 and he would win since the dems have the majority in the house.
HRC would have to win OH and its 20 electoral votes. If you add in AK where i have seen her up 15% that takes 26 electoral votes from what bush won in 2004. If you give her NM which is likely with the latino vote that would put her at 292. However, she polls really bad in IA and could lose WA. I think she holds WI and MN. But if you subtract 7 (IA) and WA (10) she is down to 275 electoral votes so only 6 to spare.
So if she loses OR (7) or either WI or MN (each 10) she could still lose.
Just my read on the electoral college.
<i>I see Obama's - MO, CO, NC, GA, probably NV </i>
Georgia and North Carolina? Unlikely. And NV, with Hispanic voters pissed off at Obama for various reasons, not the least of which is his the whole kerfuffle over his pastor? I'm afraid I don't see that happening.
I agree with Georgia, but Hillary will likely do much worse. In Nevada, Obama leads McCain by seven and Hillary trails him by 12. She wont win there.
I don't think we're arguing if Hillary can compete in those places or even do better than Obama.
I think there are plenty of us who think neither has a very good chance of winning.
How has Obama pissed of Latinos? I would like to hear that story!
Hold Kerry states, pick off Iowa, New Mexico, and Arkansas. Of course, I do worry about losing New Hampshire, so it would be nice to get an extra insurance state in there as well.
