was back around 10 points as of 10 days ago, in Rassmussen, Gallup, NYT/CBS, this is quite a showing. Now the question does the shift continue?
Very good question. Time is on Obama's side and had there been a few more weeks between SC and Big Tuesday, one would only expect that Obama's numbers would have been higher. Apparently, many people are taking a second look at the prospect of going back to the Clinton administration of the 90s, and there is no indication that Hillary means anything else by her "experience" mantra.
Now isn't that becoming the problem: people are asking: experienced at what?
If she can hold her delegate lead into March, she should surge ahead in states like TX, OH, IN, KY, and PA in March/April, if voter patterns in those states remain relatively stable.
You mean with unpledged superdelegates?
Hillary needed to be ahead by about 150-200 pledged delegates at this point to puncture Obama's momentum for February. Then she could finish him off on March 4. That was her plan all along, if she couldn't knock him out on Super Tuesday.
But that didn't work. He ended up winning pledged delegates by a small amount, adding to his existing 15 delegate lead.
Superdelegates are meaningless at this point. They will move as a herd toward the eventual pledged delegate winner. Count on it.
Super delegates will support the popular vote winner of their home state.
Why should an elected or party official care about pledged delegates from a totally different state?
That would be indefensible.
I agree. With her total delegate count, if she can get a little over 40% of the vote in the states Obama wins, then she will be in good shape for OH and TX.
