So she essentially held serve in most states and he overperformed in a few. Really, if you take Zogby's crazy polls out of the equation the polling was pretty good in most states. To the extent it was off, it tended to underestimate Obama. Again, taking Zogby's lunacy out of the equation.
A bunch of polling firms whiffed on California, such as Rasmussen (showing an Obama win,) Suffolk U (showing an Obama win,) and Field (way off.) Zogby was way, way off a few times here, but Rasmussen was also way off on some other states.
I'm pretty sure the last Rasmussen poll showed a Clinton win. The last Field poll showed Clinton leading by two.
http://www.californiaprogressreport.com/ 2008/02/analysis_of_cal.html
I wasn't aware that Suffolk polled Cali. I never saw it if they did.
The last Rasmussen showed a Clinton loss.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/california/election_20 08_california_democratic_presidential_pr imary
I did not state that the Field poll showed an Obama win as well, only that it was way off, which is true.
Suffolk poll showing Obama winning California:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/article s/docs/140-CAStatewideDem%26Ind-Frequenc ies.pdf
OK, so two polls showed a '1' point win for Obama in California. Fair enough, although they clearly didn't make an impact on me or my thinking. Nonetheless, thanks for the info.
The "he has mad momentum in California" theme was fueled by four polls.
1. The Field poll had it at 2% Clinton (with momentum towards Obama) and the note that they found that early voting was a tie between Clinton and Obama. They were very wrong. Early voting was well in favor of Clinton instead.
2. Zogby showing tremendous movement towards Obama, a complete and fatal error, amounting to an unbelievable 23% mistake.
3. Rasmussen showed a 1% Obama lead. They ended up being wrong by 11%, which is very high.
4. Suffolk U - same.
They totally blew it.
On the bright side:
1. Survey USA hit it exactly on the button. EXACTLY.
2. Mason-Dixon was almost exactly right on the button, off by only 1%
3. ARG was vey, very close as well (within 2%)
S-USA is obviously the best pollster of them all (look at their findings for MA, NJ, etc. for further verification,) Mason-Dixon did well, as did ARG for CA. Zogby is too biased to be looked upon with confidence, Rasmussen looked pretty bad, too.
