The last Rasmussen showed a Clinton loss.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/california/election_20 08_california_democratic_presidential_pr imary
I did not state that the Field poll showed an Obama win as well, only that it was way off, which is true.
Suffolk poll showing Obama winning California:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/article s/docs/140-CAStatewideDem%26Ind-Frequenc ies.pdf
OK, so two polls showed a '1' point win for Obama in California. Fair enough, although they clearly didn't make an impact on me or my thinking. Nonetheless, thanks for the info.
The "he has mad momentum in California" theme was fueled by four polls.
1. The Field poll had it at 2% Clinton (with momentum towards Obama) and the note that they found that early voting was a tie between Clinton and Obama. They were very wrong. Early voting was well in favor of Clinton instead.
2. Zogby showing tremendous movement towards Obama, a complete and fatal error, amounting to an unbelievable 23% mistake.
3. Rasmussen showed a 1% Obama lead. They ended up being wrong by 11%, which is very high.
4. Suffolk U - same.
They totally blew it.
On the bright side:
1. Survey USA hit it exactly on the button. EXACTLY.
2. Mason-Dixon was almost exactly right on the button, off by only 1%
3. ARG was vey, very close as well (within 2%)
S-USA is obviously the best pollster of them all (look at their findings for MA, NJ, etc. for further verification,) Mason-Dixon did well, as did ARG for CA. Zogby is too biased to be looked upon with confidence, Rasmussen looked pretty bad, too.
