I think Iowa will stay close between Clinton and Edwards until the week of the caucuses when it will break hard for Clinton.
The only thing that could change that dynamic would be if Edwards just collapses nationally.
I don't know what is going on with Obama in Iowa. Skipping today's Lance Armstrong forum (2000 Iowans) and September's AARP forum (1000 Iowans) strongly suggests that he's written off Iowa.
I don't think he's written off Iowa, not at all.
I think his focus is on building a GOTV structure to get younger voters to caucus. This means interacting w/them as well as fundraising for the operation.
He's banking on not losing his core IA support by skipping out on these forums/panels.
