Honestly, I think IA polls are irrelevant, no matter who does them.
Let's say you're a very good pollster, and you're focusing on one precinct. You predict turnout of 50 based on past history. Your likely caucus participants tell you:
Edwards 16 Hillary 15 Obama 10 ------------ Richardson 6 Dodd 3
Only the top 3 are viable, and Richardson/Dodd supporters will have to go with their 2nd choices. The polls don't capture this horse trading.
Second, the pollsters can only take a wild stab at predicting increased turnout due to younger voters and new or non-regular women voters at this point. There are also factors that might cluster them around specific precincts that need to be taken into account.
I think Iowa will stay close between Clinton and Edwards until the week of the caucuses when it will break hard for Clinton.
The only thing that could change that dynamic would be if Edwards just collapses nationally.
I don't know what is going on with Obama in Iowa. Skipping today's Lance Armstrong forum (2000 Iowans) and September's AARP forum (1000 Iowans) strongly suggests that he's written off Iowa.
I don't think he's written off Iowa, not at all.
I think his focus is on building a GOTV structure to get younger voters to caucus. This means interacting w/them as well as fundraising for the operation.
He's banking on not losing his core IA support by skipping out on these forums/panels.
