Somehow I don't think the Clinton camp is as confident as you are. At this point in 2003 Dean was just starting to make his move. A lot can happen in six months.
Frankly, in November and December 2003 I didn't even really believe Kerry could win myself. I just kept working my precinct and my acquaintances. I will do the same this year, no matter what polls say.
Incidentally, do you care to take my bet? You win if Clinton finishes first or second in Iowa, and I win if Clinton finishes third and fourth in Iowa. No money involved.
Did you know that I wanted to post that I would take your bet, but couldn't do so honestly?
Luckily for her I tried to find If I would bet on any other candidate taking a second or first spot, but could find one.
Just like you said, anything can happen in six months. And while I believe she's in the best postion and would certainly bet on her winning the nomination, I'd never ever bet anything on the Iowa caucus.
That caucus scares me.... :)
