What I have been reading alot lately is the Evangelicals feel used by the Republicans. They work hard to get out the vote and they are promised alot in return but they never see anything materialized. Bush just recently called them a bunch of nuts. The younger ones don't want their churches used for politics.
Another couple of things that have been bothering this group, they are pro-environment and once again feel that they are at odds with this administration. The privatization of Social Security has really rangled them. Bush never discussed this issue with them and it came as a broadside to their people.
Interesting poll--maybe we won't see significant changes in 08 -- but like you I think things are changing.
in theory, SCHIP should divide the anti-abortion movement because true pro-lifers don't believe life begins at conception and ends at birth, the way "pro-life" political pimps like Ralph Reed do.
true pro-lifers also oppose the death penalty and war.
Because of the crucial role of sex education, Republican anti-abortion policies increase abortions, while Democratic pro-choice policies decrease abortions.
But evangelicals don't analyze using facts, they rely on theology which is why they fall for GOP rhetoric rather than Democratic results.
I think one thing that prevents Democrats from making much headway into this group is the utter inability of most in the progressive community to actually talk to religious voters without condescending towards them. When we state that they don't analyze using facts, but rely on theology, we do tend to tick even the most intelligent of them off.
For the religious voter, their faith simply IS. It is not up for debate in the political arena. Policy prescriptions are, but their faith is not. And denigrating it by suggesting that they are out to lunch will certainly keep progressives from winning any allies in that movement, even on issues where they should be vocal supporters.
This and other comments in this thread demonstrate one of the saddest dynamics in politics today; pitting ourselves against one of the chief voices for justice and mercy in the world.
The following figures come from the University of Akron's surveys of the American electorate befoe and after the 2004 election. Traditional Evangelicals are basically the Religious Right, Centrist Evangelicals are part of a moderately conservative bloc of voters, and Modernist Evangelicals are relatively liberal.
Pardon the lack of vertical alignment; I don't know how to post tables.
Partisanship Percent Rep. Ind. Dem. D-R Electorate 100.0 38 20 42 4 All Evang. Protestant 26.3 56 17 27 -29 Traditional Evang. 12.6 70 10 20 -50 Centrist Evang. 10.8 47 23 30 -17 Modernist Evang. 2.9 31 25 44 13
Ideology Percent Cons. Mod. Lib. L-C Electorate 100.0 35 43 22 -13 All Evang. Protestant 26.3 55 31 14 -41 Traditional Evang. 12.6 66 25 9 -57 Centrist Evang. 10.8 48 36 16 -32 Modernist Evang. 2.9 30 39 31 1
Importance of religion to political thinking Percent Important Somewhat Not Imp. NI-Imp Electorate 100.0 39 24 37 -2 All Evang. Protestant 26.3 58 21 21 -37 Traditional Evang. 12.6 81 10 9 -72 Centrist Evang. 10.8 41 32 27 -14 Modernist Evang. 2.9 21 27 52 31
Issue Priority Percent Economy Foreign Culture Pol. Proc. Electorate 100.0 43 30 20 7 All Evang. Protestant 26.3 35 30 29 6 Traditional Evang. 12.6 27 27 40 6 Centrist Evang. 10.8 40 32 22 6 Modernist Evang. 2.9 55 29 11 5
2004 Vote Percent Bush Kerry K-B Turnout Electorate 100.0 51 49 -2 61 All Evang. Protestant 26.3 78 22 -56 63 Traditional Evang. 12.6 88 12 -76 69 Centrist Evang. 10.8 64 36 -28 52 Modernist Evang. 2.9 48 52 4 65
I believe the marriage of convenience between the right wing and big money neo-cons is going to come apart at some point because while the Wings are anti-abortion they want to help women who decide to have their babies. One would think that with a Republican Supreme Court that Bush and his cohorts could have finally overturned Abortion Rights. But they haven't done it because they need to keep the right dangling. This point has not been lost on the Evangelicals, who whatever we may of think of them personally -- they are sincere in their beliefs.
Far more frightening are the neo-cons whose agenda is to break the backs of the middle class, deplete our treasury by fighting unnecessary wars and eventually dominating the world. At some point, the Christian Right will come to realize that there is more that brings us together as a nation then drives us apart. Democrats can no longer afford to have a litmus test for who can and who can't belong to our party. We have to have a big tent and welcome other points of view if we want to have a permanent majority.
