I understand that turnout (135K) was lower than in the 2004 election (150K), but isn't that an improper comparison? Shouldn't the proper comparison be to the last April special election? Maybe the turnout was actually higher than the last special election.
There are no really useful comparisons when you are dealing with special elections. Each tends to be its own creature, animated by a very specific, very local set of issues and candidate personalities.
The run-off gives us the opportunity to explore answers to an important question: how can Democratic candidates win, or even contend, in very Republican CDs?
North County San Diego is a very Republican district. It would be an amazing thing if Busby can win in June and November. It will take more than extremely effective GOTV. It will take a candidate and set of ideas that resonate with what is on those voters' minds.
Comparing special election turnouts with regularly scheduled elections is "improper". Special elections usually have lower turnouts than either off-year elections or presidential elections. But I did see an estimate of 35% turnout for yesterday's special election, and I think that's relatively high for a special election.
