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My Response (3.00 / 4)

I just got done with a long day of travel and meetings, so I wasn't dodging this piece. I just didn't have a chacne to respond until now.

Am I embarrassed that I was so wrong about this district? Yes. Am I ashamed that I bought into the DC conventional wisdom, rather than the netroots conventional wisdom on this subject. Overwhelmingly so, esepcialyl after I recently wrote a piece descrbing how online CW was supposedly so different from DC CW. Do I wish that the netroots and the A-list blogs had all jumped aboard the Cegalis campiagn, andquite posibly made the difrerence that would ahve pushed her over the top? OH yeah. And I am mad at mysefl that I didn't push it hard enough, and I didn't make ti happen.

I am not always going to right be right aobut everything. Hell, I am wrong a lot more often than I am right. I definately screwed up on this one.

In 2006, I want all blogs to work together, and I want us to endorse together. I was unable to get consensus blogger support for this race. Had we beleived that the race would ahve been clsoer, it would ahve been easier to do so, but even then there is no guarantee at all that it would have happened.

That last point is where we come to an impass--what information can we use to know that a race is close when bascialyl none exists? You are probably right to say that we shouldn't have trusted the DC CW on this one, but how is trusting what a few poeple ont he ground say is happneing any mroe solid? People told me they saw polls showing big Duckworth leads--anecdotal information on the ground isn't necessarily any better than that.

If this sort of situation is to be prevented in the future, we need a better system for determining which races to support. We also probably need better information to make those decisions. We need to support races for which there is both near-consensus among bloggers and among netroots activists. We also need to choose races where we know we can make adifference. This is nto an easy task.

I admit that I dropped the ball on this one. But I don't think that just saying I shoudl ahve listened to waht a few people claimed was taking place on the ground is a better system. I don't know necessariyl what would have fized the situation, but if you have any ideas, I am willing to hear them.

Also, I have to run now, so I won't be able to read your rspnse for several hours. Just wanted you to know that I wasn't posting and running--I am just really busy.

In solidarity, Chris Bowers
by Chris Bowers on Wed Mar 22, 2006 at 07:18:07 PM EST

I Think (3.00 / 1)

we should all realize that we are all human and that we make mistakes. Just because someone is the leader of a major liberal blog doesn't mean that they can do no wrong. I know that this is obvious as you read it, but we have developed this subconsciousness about folks like Chris, Jerome, Kos, and others.

We all make mistakes. Chris at least has admitted his. Lets realize the problems that were made, learn from them, and move on.

IL-6, as other bloggers have said is a battle in a much larger war in the fight for the soul of the Democratic Party - and we won't win every single one. However, at the end of the day, we will prevail because we are right.


"The collapse of confidence in the Republican leadership is not enough to elect Democratic leadership." -Dean
by gatordemocrat on Wed Mar 22, 2006 at 07:27:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

"Our polling shows..." (3.00 / 5)

...People told me they saw polls showing big Duckworth leads--anecdotal information on the ground isn't necessarily any better than that...

If their spin starts with "our polling shows..." and they don't immediately show you the data, run like the wind and don't look back.

543,895 votes
by Michael Bersin on Wed Mar 22, 2006 at 08:23:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Wow. A great, honest responce. Thanks. n/t (none / 0)


by Nate Roberts on Wed Mar 22, 2006 at 11:17:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Thanks (3.00 / 2)

Thanks for admitting you goofed. We all make mistakes. No long lasting hard feelings.

I've just been fighting in the trenches on this on for a long time and feel like core to my fight was that no one believed what I was saying. Then this post confirming it.

Hopefully some learning will come out of this.


Witty comment goes here...
by michael in chicago on Thu Mar 23, 2006 at 07:43:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Response (3.00 / 0)

Given Mike's frontpage post, I think that you should write an extended version of this on the frontpage.  This subject of conventional wisdom in DC and the bloghsphere deserves more attention.


Vox Mia -- Adding My Voice to the Chorus
by bedobe on Thu Mar 23, 2006 at 12:29:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Response (3.00 / 1)

I think no more anecdotal polling data.  If they have it, they should show it.  I heard too about polling data in the 6th, but no one I know has ever seen it.  The question always was: well, if they've got this great data that shows how weak Cegelis is and how strong Duckworth is -- then why won't they publish it?  


by Maven on Thu Mar 23, 2006 at 02:04:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Polling (none / 0)

...then why won't they publish it?...

Campaign polls should never be publicly released. Campaigns use the results (and especially the crosstabs) to target. If you release "poll results" the pollster is ethically obligated to release the data and the methodology. If you release everything you've spent a lot of money to give the opposition your campaign plan. Not smart.

You can't hide it and selectively release bits and pieces. The republicans tried to do so with their "Contract on America".

...In 1997, the American Association for Public Opinion Research censured Luntz for violating the association's code of ethics, the only such censure in the recent history of the organization.

A 14-month investigation into Luntz's work found that he repeatedly had refused to disclose the questions and methodology of polling work he had done during the development of the Republicans' 1994 "Contract With America," of which he claimed to have been a chief architect -- a hotly refuted claim among critics.

Luntz said that the information in question was proprietary...


543,895 votes
by Michael Bersin on Thu Mar 23, 2006 at 02:22:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Response (3.00 / 0)

Donors don't produce the cash without polling numbers first.  They had polling numbers & didn't show them because they were much lower than they expected.  They just kept telling everyone whatever marketing rhetoric they wanted to hear:  Duckworth will get 50% (+/-) of the vote.  She's polling that well.

When the campaign's PR contractors never released any info of substance, it was obvious.  Lots of marketing hyperbole, smoke & mirrors.

Duckworth will never survive Roskam.  I'm certain he already has something & is just waiting for the right time to hit her with it during the election cycle.


by Philosophe Forum on Thu Mar 23, 2006 at 07:04:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Response (3.00 / 1)

I believe the "Friends of Tammy Duckworth" FEC report showed tens of thousands of dollars going to polling businesses.  If those numbers had been any good, they would have leaked the numbers to the media to demoralize grassroots guerillas like the notorious M.I.C.

But they didn't.  Instead, their surrogates kept saying they had great numbers that they were not releasing for long term tactical reasons.  

It was bullsht -- I'd say self-evident bullsht -- but I fully expect the folks that fell for that line to do so again next time.  While every claim from the Cegelis campaign was subject to intense scrutiny from the media, old and new, but they ate up every statement from the superflaks at the Duckworth campaign like it was made of sugar.

Just embarassing.


by AustinMayor on Thu Mar 23, 2006 at 09:41:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Response (2.00 / 2)

I am even more embarrassed for those who volunteered for Duckworth after watching her commercials and seeing all the media coverage.  Do they believe everything they see on TV?


by illinois062006 on Thu Mar 23, 2006 at 09:48:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]