This is not 2002. That election was the first one to follow 9/11. It was in the midst of a war run-up for Iraq. Bush was at 66% approval. Support for Congress as a whole was around 50 percent.
This year is very different. Bush is at the mid-30s. People hate Congress. Corruption is widely reported and widespread. And Iraq is a disaster.
And Bush screwed up on the attempted ports deal and he's increasingly mentioning Iran being connected with troubles in Iraq...