Display:


Huge Partisan Differences On Q17, 19, 20 (none / 0)

Because of the way that politics is discussed, people routinely get the idea that liberals (or Democrats) all believe one thing, while conservatives (or Republicans) all believe another.  In fact, on virtually all issues, there is much more agreement than disagreement than disagreement.  This doesn't always mean consensus, however, since poeople can agree on both sides of a question, or, at the various points on a Lickert Scale (such as the 1-5 scales used on the questions discussed here).

For example, using 1996-2004 data for the General Social Survey question:

"206. Please tell me whether or not you think it should be possible for a pregnant woman to obtain a legal abortion if...READ EACH STATEMENT, AND CIRCLE ONE CODE FOR EACH.
G. The woman wants it for any reason?
we find the following:
       Strong  Strong    Difference
         Dem      Rep    
  1. YES   45.0    26.4        18.6
  2. NO    50.9    73.6        22.7
Total:                       20.65

The total difference is calculated by summing all the differences and dividing by 2, since differences are double-counted--a shift from "yes" to "no" is one less "yes" AND one more "no."

This produces the surprising result that there is almost 4 times as much agreement as disagreement over abortion (by this measure) between strong Dems and strong Reps.  For self-identified liberals vs. conservatives, the difference is higher--29.1%.  Still, more than twice as much agreement as disagreement. This is no abberation. The strongest abortion or gay marriage hot buttons rarely register above 33% disagreement, and almost never over 40% between liberals and conservatives. Party differences are usually smaller.

On many, many questions--particularly about spending money--differences are significantly smaller.  On the question:

"are we spending too much, too little, or about the right  amount on (ITEM)?
D. Solving the problems of the big cities

the liberal/conservative difference is a paltry 12.6%.

By contrast, Chris's post-election analysis showed that the difference in Bush/Kerry presidential candidate vote in 2004 was about 70% between liberals and conservatives.  Thus, candidate votes are much more polarized than issue votes.

With this as background, the total differences for the questions above are:

Q17 (Government right to bypass courts): 47.85
Q18 (Trust the NSA to only monitor threats): 35.5
Q19 (Congress should investigate if Bush broke the law): 53.95
Q20 (Impeach/Remove Bush is he broke law): 45

Of these four questions, only Q18 falls within the range of normal hot-button issues.  Q17, Q19, and Q20 have differences that are off the charts.  All have to do with presidential power, and whether we should even consider questioning it.  Indeed, Q19 not only asks if the President is above the law, but if he's above even being investigated.

If we define a "polarizing issue" as one in which there is more agreement than disagreement, then Q19 is one of the exceedingly rare questions in American politics that reveals an actual polarizing issue.  Aside from who you will vote for, such issues are almost impossible to find.

Naturally, no one expects these numbers would be the same if a Democrat were President.  They are a clear indication of a massive partisan divide, and they clearly reflect how much this presidency exists in a realm that is divorced from the realm of common issue differences.  This is what a cult of personality looks like through the lens of polling data.


by Paul Rosenberg on Thu Feb 02, 2006 at 11:01:35 AM EST