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Re: The MyDD Poll: Methodology Statement (none / 0)

The results of initial weighting by voter registration and region of the country proved unsatisfactory and, thus, conventional methods of balancing by region and ethnicity were applied.

Explain please? We didn't a weight by party reg work? What were the results? Haven't we spent the better part of the last two years screaming that pollsters should weight for party registration? My head's exploding ...

by ColoDem on Fri Jan 27, 2006 at 03:53:47 PM EST

Re: The MyDD Poll: Methodology Statement (none / 0)

Here's exactly what it boiled down to. The weights by party reg generated 40% Dems in the sample. There's a decent case to make that this is correct, from the data I compiled and also a few other sources. However, most other polls don't show that figure for Dems. That would have caused a controversy. It would have misdirected discussion about the poll into a discussion about proper proportions, etc. We would have been talking about weights instead of data and findings. Accused of partisanship when it's not so in the least. All in the first time out for the poll. So I made a command decision, a very hard decision to make, late last night to go with conventional method in the best interest of the poll. This time.

I'm not done with this issue by any means. I'm actually more motivated now than before because we were close. And I've got a dataset I compiled where I can run tests and model weights. I can show serious weaknesses in conventional method now. I've already done it here. I'll be working behind the scenes on a more rigorous and strongly defensible method. This wasn't the time to fight over it, though. We have our ducks in a row with this stuff or we all get roasted.

Thanks very much for caring about this and asking, commenting. Keep the faith, it's going to happen.

by Sun Tzu on Fri Jan 27, 2006 at 06:43:50 PM EST
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