MyDD :: Comments Dems Have The Generic Advantage in 2006

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Just for the record . . . (3.00 / 2)

The last four times we ran specific national Republican against generic local Democrat, these were the results:

                         Pres

                         Approval

      House    Senate    Rating

1982    +27    + 0         43%

1986    + 5    + 8         47%

1990    + 7    + 1         58%

2002    - 7    - 2         65%

by tgeraghty on Mon Sep 26, 2005 at 01:35:49 AM EST

Re: Just for the record . . . (none / 0)

Damn, you're good.

by Chris Bowers on Mon Sep 26, 2005 at 11:42:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Just for the record . . . (none / 0)

Hard to separate out the effects of a more popular Pres from the effects of gerrymandering.

But I agree with Chris. Besides, I want to see Congress change in my lifetime, and I am pre-Boomer. So let's get on it. Get those folks in DC to get moving and take a chance, and if they won't, let's expand the field and try to take 20 or more. Really, if everyone here put their money and or efforts where their mouths are, we could do it.

by Mimikatz on Mon Sep 26, 2005 at 12:57:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Just for the record . . . (none / 0)

The only correction I would make to this is that in '86, there was no approval poll taken right around the election, there was one taken a month before which put Reagan at 63%, and one taken a month after which put him at 47%, and in the intervening time the Iran-Contra scandal had broken out.

I think the scandal was actually uncovered after the November election (late November), but somebody with a better memory than me, or with actual documentation might want to verify that.

It may be that the earlier, higher, approval rating is the more appropriate measure of Presidential popularity at the actual time of the election.

by tgeraghty on Mon Sep 26, 2005 at 01:00:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Just for the record . . . (none / 0)

I think what your table (good information by the way) shows that Democrats HAVE had success running "generic Democrat vs. unpopular specific Republican." Thats what 2006 is shaping up to be. I did not realize we picked up 27 seats in '82, I do know my man Dick Durbin was elected in that sweep though. We dont need to pick up 27 seats, we just need to pick up 15 seats. Hell I'm starting to think we might just be able to pull this thing off...

by AC4508 on Mon Sep 26, 2005 at 05:31:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]