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Re: I hope Chris' electoral math was fully grasped (none / 0)

I wasn't knocking Edwards... I was knocking the assumption he was going to bring NC into the Dems column.  It was a silly assumption.  But you are right, he did do some good.  

Warner can get Virginia, I agree with that.  I was worried about Allen, but I saw some polls saying that if it was Warner vs Allen, VA goes with Warner.  Good to hear.  

All I was pointing out is that Picking Clark or Warner is not a guarentee of any other states BUT the home states and even then those aren't guarentees... although they are strong possibilities.  And yes, I agree VA is trending Dem.  I just think it is foolish to think that some think we are guarenteed to take all of Kerry's states.  Even a solid Blue state could shift to the red or purple depending on who the GOP nominee is.  It will take work to keep every one of those states and to flip enough to win the presidency.  Besides our goal should be over 50% of PV and 320 EV so that we have a clear mandate.  The moment people start thinking it is a lock, the moment we lose.  I am just being practical.

http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Fri Nov 04, 2005 at 10:51:56 PM EST
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Re: I hope Chris' electoral math was fully grasped (none / 0)

The mere fact that Warner has a good chance of winning Virginia probably makes him a better bet, this far out, than any of our other likely candidates.  There's also the fact that he's the only likely candidate whose top resumé entry is "governor," not "senator" or "general," which is generally an advantage in presidential politics.  Remember, we haven't elected a democrat who wasn't a southern governor to the White House since 1964 (although a former southern senator did win the popular vote and would have won the electoral college if not for a mixture of fraud and incompetence in Florida in 2000, his top resumé item was "Vice President").

I don't think Warner has a lock, but I do think he has better odds than HRC, Clark, Edwards, Gore, Kerry, Bayh, Feingold, or anybody else whose name I've heard bandied about.  To improve those odds, I'd add Senator Bill Nelson of Florida to the ticket -- a 3-4% "vice-presidential favorite son" boost should be sufficient to put the Sunshine State in our column, and I think the rethugs would have a very hard time finding the electoral votes among the states Kerry won to compensate for losing both VA and FL.  Not impossible, especially if they go stark raving sane and nominate someone like McCain or Giuliani, but unlikely.

Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama for President! Beat McCain!
by Alex on Fri Nov 04, 2005 at 11:45:33 PM EST
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Re: I hope Chris' electoral math was fully grasped (1.00 / 1)

There are 3 things we can't nominate and hope to win
  1. Senator
  2. Congressman
  3. anyone from any state Kerry won (esp no one from the northeast)

beyond that the bottom half of the ticket doesn't garentee a state but in most cases other than Gore the top half usually does.

I would also Suggest either a
Clark/Easley or Easley/Clark Ticket

by orin76 on Sun Nov 06, 2005 at 02:29:35 PM EST
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