You say all the Kerry voters will vote for a centrist Dem. I disagree. You might get some apathy in the far left wing of the Dems who stay home or vote Green. You lump in Nader voters, but how do you know they will show up to the polls. In other words, there is no way to know how they vote or if they even do. Besides, you also don't know if Nader or another third party is going to come in an take some votes.
Yet you try to make an argument that a centrist pulls all the Kerry votes plus 2.5%. How do you get that number? Did you pull it out of nowhere or is there actually some factual data to back it up?
And we DON'T KNOW that the Guiliani or McCain will lose the nomination. They are doing great in prelim polls (although 3 years out these are useless). You assume they aren't going to win in the southern primaries. Just like most people assumed Dean was gonna be the nominee or wasn't going to get 2% of the vote in Iowa back in 2002. You can't assume things like this.
I will put money that if HRC does run, Guiliani and McCain are going to sell themselves as the only people who can beat her and that will win a lot of votes from the Theocons. Will they win the nom? I don't know, but they have a good shot. It will be interesting to watch.
Assumptions that a candidate will win 300 plus EVs lead people to rest on their laurels. I don't care if the the GOP runs Hitler and we run FDR... it takes a lot of GOTV effort in 50 states to win the election. Even if you can't win the state, forcing your opponent to defend is just as important. Provide some proof for your post and you will convince me. But to say Warner, Clark etc pulls all of Kerry's voters plus 2.5% means nothing without the proof to back it up. I can just as easily say third party Candidate Jesse Ventura is going to pull 1/4 of Bush's votes and a 1/3 of Kerry's votes plus 3.5%. It means nothing unless I provide proof.
Gore(D)got 80% of the Clinton 1996 Voters. Bush(R)got 15% of the Clinton 1996 Voters. Bush(R)got 90% of the Dole voters. Gore(D)got 5% of the Dole Voters. Gore(D)got 25% of the Perot 1996 Voters. Bush(R) got 65% of the Perot 1996 Voters. Among First Time Voters. Gore(D)got 45%. Bush(R)got 50%.
In 2004 Presidential Exit Polls. 45% were Bush Voters. 35% were Gore Voters. 5% were Nader Voters 15% Did Not Vote in 2000
90% of the Bush(2000)voters Voted for Bush in 2004. 90% of the Gore Voters voted for Kerry. Gore got 70% of the Nader Voters. and 55% of the First Time Voters.
Looking at the last two Presidential election. The Presidential Nominee of the Party that is out of Power(Challenger)usually gets 90% Support among Voters who voted for their Party's Presidential Nominee(Kerry-Democratic)during the last Presidential election- 2004. Secondly. The Presidential Nominee of the Party out of Power does slightly well with First Time Voters which consist of 15% of the VAP.
In 2008. 45% of the electorate will be Bush-2004 voters 40% of the electorate will be Kerry voters 15% of the electorate will be First Time voters.
The Democratic Nominee will get 90% of the Kerry voters. and 60% of the voters who did not vote in 2004. 10% of the Bush-2004 voters.
During every Open Seat Presidential elections. The Presidential Nominee of the of the Party out of Power carried all of the State the Party's Presidential Nominee of the last Presidential Election carried. In 1984- Walter Mondale(D)carried only MN and DC. In 1988- MN and DC went for Michael Dukakis(D). In 1996- Bob Dole(R) carried AL,AK,CO,GA,ID,IN,KS,MS,MT,NE,NC,ND,OK,SC,SD,TX, UT,VA,and WY. In 2000- All of the States Dole carried in 1996 went for Bush. 2004- John Kerry(D) carried CA,CT,DE,HI,IL,ME,MD,MA,MI,MN,NH,NJ,NY,OR,PA,RI, VT,WA,WI,and DC. The 2008 Democratic Presidential Nominee will carry all of the States Kerry won in 2004. Secondly In 1992- Bill Clinton won Colorado,Georgia,and Montana. But lost Arizona and Florida. In 1996- Bill Clinton won Arizona and Florida, but lost Colorado,Georgia,and Montana. In 2000 Al Gore lost Arizona,Colorado,Florida,Georgia,and Montana. George Bush won NH in 2000 but lost IA and NM. In 2004- Bush lost NH but won IA and NM. The 2008 Republican Nominee is likely to lose Iowa,New Hampshire and New Mexico.
The 2008 Democratic Presidential Nominee's electoral vote Base is at 264.
States that Clinton carried in 1992 and 1996 but went for Bush in 2000. Arkansas Kentucky Louisiana Missouri Nevada New Hampshire Ohio Tennessee West Virginia All of those states except West Virginia voted for Bush Sr. in 1988. excluding Iowa and New Mexico. The 9 Red States likely to turn blue in 2008 are 1)Ohio 2)Nevada 3)Colorado 4)Florida 5)Missouri 6)Arkansas 7)Arizona 8)West Virginia 9)Virginia
Who ever can win one or two of those states can win the 2008 Presidential Election.
Secondly in Open Seat Presidential Elections- Elections are about change. In Open Seat Presidential Elections, Presidential Candidates of the Party out of power does at least 5% better than their Party's Presidential nominee of the last Presidential election. In 1984- Walter Mondale(D)got 41% of the popular vote against the Republican Incumbent-Ronald Reagan. In 1988- OPEN Seat. Michael Dukakis(D)got 46% of the popular vote. while George Bush(R)got 54%. 1996- Bob Dole(R)got 41% of the popular vote . 2000- OPEN Seat. George Bush(R)got 48% of the popular vote.
