I was a huge Edwards supporter for years prior to 2004. He was by far our best hope to oust an incumbent last year. You need charisma and likeability to do that, not a resume. Our handicapping was remarkably incompetent.
But you can't fail to properly adjust to situation. As much as I'm still an Edwards fan, Mark Warner is clearly the best hope in 2008. That potential swipe of 13 electoral votes cannot be understated. As Chris points out, it dramatically reverses the margin of error to our side, not the GOP's. Annexing Virginia means we wouldn't necessarily need Florida or Ohio. Just capture one of the more likely smaller states, along with holding the states Kerry managed, admittedly not a cinch.
I'm not looking at any Evan Bayh link. That's lunacy. He would get belted in his home state by double digits. Indiana is essentially an uprooted Southern state.
But Virginia is clearly moving slowly our way. Maybe 2 points per presidential cycle. I seriously doubt we can carry Virginia with Warner in the VP slot. That's generally worth 3-4 points. Stop knocking Edwards in regard to 2004 in North Carolina. He sliced the GOP partisan index from 13.34 in '00 to 9.98 in 2004. That's exactly what he should be worth and what I predicted ahead of time. Edwards can't win North Carolina atop our ticket. It's too far slanted.
Plus he wouldn't get the full favorite son boost in '08 since he was already on the ticket once. A blase attitude kicks in. That's what doomed Gore in 2000 in Tennessee. If it had been his first appearance on the ticket, Gore would have carried Tennessee. Warner benefits greatly in '08 from no one from Virginia appearing on a national ticket in quite a while. His favorite son bump would be substantial, likely enough to turn the state even in a 50/50 popular vote race nationwide.
Sorry, I guess this was mostly a Kaine/Kilgore thread. Like I posted yesterday, no chance we win by 8 points or even close. Still, I'm increasingly optimistic. This race completely defines 2005. If we win, along with New Jersey, I count that as three straight including the Gregoire recount in Washington. If we blow it, the pundits will rightfully pounce on the aspect that Democrats can't win a key race even in the midst of GOP implosion.
Warner can get Virginia, I agree with that. I was worried about Allen, but I saw some polls saying that if it was Warner vs Allen, VA goes with Warner. Good to hear.
All I was pointing out is that Picking Clark or Warner is not a guarentee of any other states BUT the home states and even then those aren't guarentees... although they are strong possibilities. And yes, I agree VA is trending Dem. I just think it is foolish to think that some think we are guarenteed to take all of Kerry's states. Even a solid Blue state could shift to the red or purple depending on who the GOP nominee is. It will take work to keep every one of those states and to flip enough to win the presidency. Besides our goal should be over 50% of PV and 320 EV so that we have a clear mandate. The moment people start thinking it is a lock, the moment we lose. I am just being practical.
I don't think Warner has a lock, but I do think he has better odds than HRC, Clark, Edwards, Gore, Kerry, Bayh, Feingold, or anybody else whose name I've heard bandied about. To improve those odds, I'd add Senator Bill Nelson of Florida to the ticket -- a 3-4% "vice-presidential favorite son" boost should be sufficient to put the Sunshine State in our column, and I think the rethugs would have a very hard time finding the electoral votes among the states Kerry won to compensate for losing both VA and FL. Not impossible, especially if they go stark raving sane and nominate someone like McCain or Giuliani, but unlikely.
I would also Suggest either a Clark/Easley or Easley/Clark Ticket
