The chances of us beating Hatch, barring a personal scandal, is slim to none even in a big Democratic year similar to what the GOP had in 1994. With that said, a strong showing could be made that could spark renewal for the party in the state. Keeping Hatch in the 50's would be a big deal. If the election were held today, Hatch's numbers would probably come down, both because of general fatigue with the candidate as well as the national political climate. A good thing would be to see some regular polls with Hatch's reelect at less than 60% and then it would cause enough grief with Utah Republicans and the NRSCC to shift their attention and resources some.
Every Dollar Hatch has to spend to keep his seat is a dollar he doesn't have to give to help elect Rs other places- especially if he needs help.
This is what the Dem establishment doesn't get about a 50 state strategy: make them defend every seat, and a couple surprises like this will crop up, drain money and get the money race closer to even.
