I'm in Leach's district and helped his opponent a bit this time.  This may be one of the most Democratic districts held by a Republican.  We've tried everything to tie him to Gingrich, to DeLay... but he's soft-spoken, almost professorial in his style, uses the word "independent" every chance he gets, and has halfway decent positions on a couple hot button issues (choice and guns).

With the defeat of Connie Morella in 2002, Leach is the last remaining Token Republican for "independent" groups to endorse and maintain a thin veneer of bipartisanship.

My pet theory is that voters are doing the same thing.  People are taught in our political culture to "vote the person not the party" and that partisanship is Bad.  So a lot of basically progressive people vote for Leach in order to make themselves feel good because they didn't vote a straight ticket.  Exit polls have had Leach winning 20 to 25% of the Democratic vote for several cycles.

Retirement is unlikely.  He moved into the district after the '01 reapportionment which is an indicator that he's in for the long haul.  And he's gotten loads of local media for traveling to the tsunami scene.

At one time I thought Leach might be vulnerable in a GOP primary, but now I'm convinced that the GOP knows he's the only Republican who can hold Iowa 1.  He may never break 60% again just because of the district's party ID.  But taking that last ten percent has been our quest for the grail since at least 1994...

The only people I can see giving Leach a run for his money are the Vilsacks (either one of them).