Compared to Gore, Kerry won NH and lost IA and NM, which looks like a regional effect to me. Nader was a big factor in the 2000 IA and NM victories, so Bush did much better in absolute terms in those states this time.
The "partisan index" wins us no states. The Repubs could win the Presidency by 20% and yet the partisan index could show a bunch of states trending "relatively" Dem.
I am originally from Ohio. If Kerry had been from IL (or the South) instead of MA, I really think he would have won Ohio and be President-elect today.