Display:
Permalink :: 14 Comments :: Post a Comment


Monday is important for another reason (none / 0)

It will be the first day that all of Rasmussen's results will be post-debate.  Kerry better be at least tied (within a point, let's say) in that poll then.

Why is the Rasmussen poll so important?  Because the sample size is HUGE.  There will 1,000 calls placed today, 1,000 placed tommorow, and 1,000 calls place on Sunday in that poll, for a total of 3,000 people surveyed.  So the sampling error is only +/- two points-very small.

Poll is here:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

by Geotpf on Fri Oct 01, 2004 at 01:59:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Monday is important for another reason (none / 0)

Possible Scenarios and the results:
  1. Bush increases support and Kerry support goes down or stays the same - Unlikely, but I think if this happens we may be in trouble...or the poll is an outlier.
  2. Bush stays the same and Kerry increases by taking some of the undecided vote - A definate win.
  3. Bush Decreases and Kerry stays the same - A good setup for us as that means people are being open minded.
  4. Bush Decreases and Kerry Increases - A big win and huge momentum as Kerry gains undecideds and some Bush leaners.
  5. Both stay the same - Not as bad as the first scenario, but increases pressure on Kerry.  I don't see this as likely though.
Based on what I have seen today, I am predicting either scenario #2, 3 and 4.  Most likely I think we will see scenario #2; just a gut feeling but I am hoping for #4 obviously.  Any of #2,3, and 4 and a strong showing in Debate #2 could be just what we need to propel us to victory.  Comeback Kid comming back.

What are you predictions?

by Michael on Fri Oct 01, 2004 at 07:32:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Login
Username:

Password: