The Race Goes On for Bernie and Ted

Bernie and Ted refuse to turn over. Kasich is an afterthought, at least for now. Clinton's inevitability remains, but not so much for Trump.

Bernie Sanders has won six of the seven contests since 3/15 and gained 81 delegates on Clinton. But, to put that in perspective, Clinton gained 102 delegates over Sanders on 3/15. He's closing the gap, but its still a big hole of over 200 pledged delegates, 1253-1025. Next up, a Wisconsin primary and a Wyoming caucus. Sanders will narrow the gap further. To just 200 delegates? Possibly. Then the huge contest in New York, on April 19th, with 291 delegates at stake. That's a really big deal. Clinton has to be expected to win New York. I'll venture that if Sanders comes out of New York down just 200 delegates, he's barely still got gas. There are few few caucuses going forward, which helps Clinton. But California is huge and might eventually favor Sanders, but for now leans to Clinton.

Ted Cruz is also a winner of the caucus system. He swept the Utah caucus, and the ND caucus has all the makings of an Anti-Trump selection. Cruz is also likley to gain about 40 delegates overall on Trump in Wisconsin. The GOP is getting behind Cruz, and it's beginning to show up in the polls. A recent CA poll shows the trend-- Cruz and Trump now tied in a state that Trump must win in order to gain a majority of delegates prior to the July convention. Overall, Trump is still in a commanding position, leading Cruz by over 280 delegates, with 47% of the pledged delegates. If Trump goes over 50% of the delegates with New York, he starts to look inevitable.

It still looks like a Trump vs Clinton contest. Gary Johnson polls over 10% as the Libertarian candidate, and we are sure to get a Christian Constitutionalist candidate if Trump is the GOP nominee. It's doubtful any other 3rd party candidate emerges on the right. On the left, the longer Sanders goes on, the more likely is is that the Green Party gets a rise from an anti-Clinton defection.


Clinton sweeps, Trump loses Ohio

That would be the headline. Trump lost Ohio resoundingly, and continued his luck by winning the states of NC and IL, only because of multiple candidates, and winning MO by just 2,000 votes. Clinton won MO by just over 500 votes, that's close.

Rubio lost Florida, and it wasn't even close. He's out, and it's a three way race. In the next three contests, each are favored. Trump in Arizona, Cruz in the Utah caucus, and Kasich in the Wisconsin primary. This is going to continue, probably to the convention.

Sanders is in Arizona, and will compete there, but the nomination race is over. Clinton now leads by over 300, with 58% of the delegates to date. Sanders though, would be well to stay in, and continue by bashing Trump. It bodes ill if he's bashing Clinton at this point. I don't expect I will be paying much attention, if any at all, to a Clinton vs Trump contest.


A Trump & Bernie Day

Trump's target of delegates for this Tuesday is 272 according to 538. Florida is 99 and Ohio is 66. Together, Missouri and Illinois are 121. North Carolina has 72, and the Northern Marianas has 9.

Trump is making a last minute push to capture Ohio, feeling no doubt, according the polls, that Florida is secure. Ohio polling shows Kasich ahead or tied in its last six polls. In NC, Trump will take about 45 percent, will sweep the 9 from NM (per reports), and MO & IL will be about a tie between Trump and Cruz.

That puts Trump at, give or take 200, about 70 short of his target. Rubio drops out, and its a three way race. If Trump also wins Ohio then he's at his target, and Kasich also drops out too. Either way, there's still one more act to play out in the Republican nomination race. Despite the last post I made, from what I can tell, Trump's numbers have continued to surge, or at least maintain, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him win across the board tomorrow.

Bernie has polls showing him very close, or leading, in the states of Missouri, Illinois, and Ohio. If he wins those three states, it's going to be very interesting and competitive going into the next states. A Utah caucus, which Bernie will win. An Arizona primary, which will be competitive, and then a Wisconsin primary in April, which Bernie would also probalby win.

Even if he wins just one state tomorrow, Bernie will go on. But if he wins three, and then the next three states, its going to move the discourse to a level where there is talk of Sanders taking the lead in delegates.

Bernie is not there yet, but if he's able to half the lead, by April 5th, from the current 212 of pledged delegates to about 100, it begins to be a plausible outcome.


For 3/15 Primaries: Dump Trump and Sanders Upset?

That's the opposite of what is supposed to occur on Tuesday, but who knows! There are signs though, of Trump dumping and Sanders upsetting.

Going into this, from 3/1 Super Tuesday, the conclusion would have been seen as Trump and Clinton sweeping the states of MO, NC, IL, OH, FL. They were ahead in the polls of those states.

The results from Wyoming and DC might be an outlier or significant of things to come. Trump only recieved 7% of the vote in WY and 14% in DC. Resulting in delegates:

Rubio: 11
Cruz: 10
Kasich: 9
Unassigned: 8
Trump: 1

DC is not shocking, but only 7% in the Wyoming caucus for Trump? In Idaho, albeit a primary, Trump got 28% so perhaps. Onto the states:

Ohio-- Kasich should win solidly, probably in the mid-40's. Trump's numbers are falling, he might wind up 3rd behind Cruz in the state. There are not enough places in Ohio for Trump to flame the discontent; the economy is well and Kasich is fairly popular.

North Carolina-- Trump will win widely, 40% or so, Cruz in 2nd. Trump's numbers here have went up since the Chicago flare-up. NC Republicans have both Dixie & Appalachia, so not surprising at all. However, the delegates are awarded by vote, so even Rubio and Kasich will get a few.

Missouri-- It's between Cruz & Trump. I will predict a Cruz upset in MO overall, but a Trump win in the CD's. There is only one poll, showing it close, but Cruz has done well in the midwestern cities. Trump will win the Ozarks by a majority.

Illinois-- Like MO. It might also vote Kasich above the threshold for delegates by winning a couple of CD's. Really hard to predict how the state of Lincoln goes Trump, but it might, in a slim plurality. I'll predict a Cruz victory because of the downstate mild-mannered vote.

Florida-- Rubio could pull an upset, according the the Mason-Dixon poll. Here's the pros: It's a closed primary, Trump heavily depends on voters aged 18-24, and Rubio leads among the most likely voters, aged 65 plus. Rubio also leads among the early voters, by 9 percent. Everything about this poll, and how Florida votes, is pointing to an upset.

The cons (shorter but more significant): Other polls have Trump winning Florida easily.

On the Democratic side, Clinton should win all 5 of these states. But that's not going to happen most likely.

Illinois-- Sanders has the lead there now, and has an upset here. He's framed his election against Rahm!

Ohio-- This is the second best shot for a Sanders upset, but I will stick with Clinton. The economy is improving in the state (which is also helping Kasich).

Missouri-- Sanders third best state, but unlikely. But yes, a lot of unrest that could benefit Sanders.

NC, FL-- Clinton will win these two southern states (which seems like her only stronghold) easily.

Next week, comes the Arizona primary. Wow, the site of Trump's wall (at least partially). That should be very hot in more ways than just the weather.


On Bernie... and Trump (of course)

From the comments:

"Bernie won Michigan by nearly 19,000 votes even though Nate Silver gave him a 6% chance of winning tonight."

Well, polls suck nowadays, so it's not all that surprising that we see a 19% swing in a Democratic primary. Trump has had about equal that happen in a number of states during this election cycle.

Since the delegates are awarded proportionally, Bernie wins 65 delegates and Hillary wins 58 with 17 delegates yet to be awarded. Kick back and enjoy the ride. Hillary is running out of former Confederate States to save her campaign...

You should realize that these are African-Americans that are the reason why Clinton is winning in these states? ie, the KKK voters, perhaps still Democrats too, are crossing over and voting for Trump.

Trump has a great coalition of losers going on, which does include those ignorant enough to view a color of skin as a substantive difference. Besides the prejudiced, he has the shallow and the crazy. TPM has a couple of articles here and here highlighting this latter group of voters, who I like to think of as having an 'anarchist' flavor of participation. The crazy ones are the driving force behind Trump, and just want to blow up the system. The shallow are just brand-leechers, who want to cling to something bigger than themselves; they show up to vote. This is an important distinction.

Here's a quote from "RollTideRoll" commenter from some rightwing blog I'd rather not remember, reflecting on Trump having a negative view by nearly 70% of voters in the GE:

"This poll means nothing. Obviously, the people who keep turning out to vote for Trump in mass numbers do not view him unfavorably. Both McCain and Romney were viewed favorably, what did that get them?"

That's not an anarchist, but one from the shallow bucket. I've interacted with a few of these people online in comments, and it's always the same. They are offended when confronted, and quickly cocoon themselves. They are not the prime movers, like the anarachist ones. Consumers first, they are buyers of whatever Trump is selling (and this includes goods in the future). They are the ones you see if the funny interviews being read quotes from Hitler, and attributed to Trump, to which they therefore agree.

Those on the side of anarchy are neither shallow nor entirely without reason. I mean, it's pretty obvious that what we have going on is neither sustainable or smart, and a drastic change is needed. Trump is just a vehicle for those that want to say "none of the above" in a not so polite manner. They haven't thought it through, in fact they don't want too, and that is their ultimate fault. Many of them view this as a patriotic task, but they are blind to how their loyalty is being manipulated. The usual bag of tricks here, the 'other' that's changing the way or order.

An authoritarian needs people to blow up shit, destablize things, and create the vacuum in which they step in to make order. Trump plays into this with high words that mean nothing, what he's selling, on the domestic side and anger, what he's projecting, toward the other, outside the border.

Now, about Bernie (Drumph just leeches into everything nowadays). Sanders got the same number of delegates in Michigan. It was a terrific moral victory.

It's not actually his fault that he loses in Dixie. The voters there, as a block, recognize that Hillary got behind Barack in '08 with unfaulting support, and they have her back for it now. It's a sense of loyalty that she earned with them.

Will Bernie win any of the next-Tuesday states?
Florida? No. Missouri? No. Illinois? No. North Carolina? No. Ohio? No. He could probably go hang out in Wisconsin for three weeks and win there, but if the above is correct, he should recognize it as over and suspend his campaign. Will he? Unlikely.

What Sanders should do is make it a crusade to get rid of the superdelegate system.

I am very interested if Trump can somehow be stopped from gaining the Republican nomination with a convention fight. Otherwise, it's just a waste of time, as Clinton will easily defeat Trump in the GE (and if not... I cannot fathom that possibility). Can Trump be stopped still from the Republican nomination? Yes, there are a couple of ways still. Let me list them:

1) Rubio wins Florida and Kasich wins Ohio. This seems slim, but possible. Without them, Trump needs over 60% of the remaining delegates, which will not happen.

2) Trump wins Florida, but Kasish wins Ohio. This actually seems the most likely. Trump would need 51% of the remaining, which he is not likely to get. More to the point, Rubio would drop out, and the Kasich would come to the fore in a three-way.

3) Trump wins Florida and Ohio, leaving it him vs Cruz. Trump needs 48% of the remaining, and the GOPe has to get behind Cruz to defeat Trump. If you wanted to write a more fantastic karmic deal for the GOPe, I don't know what you could come up with that tops this faustian bargain.

I'm guessing number 2 happens, but either of the others are possible. If it is that, then Kasich could go on a roll after Ohio, winning Wisconsin, California, New York, New Jersey, the eastern states. The fever might break and the Republican party may save itself from those wanting to blow it up. I wouldn't bank on it, but it does give a glimmer of hope that Trump isn't one election away from being the President.