The Sky is Falling
by Jerome Armstrong, Tue Sep 07, 2010 at 03:33:04 PM EDT
That's the title the Politico gives it:
New data make it clear that Democrats could lose bigger on Nov. 2 than they did in the Republican revolution of 1994:
--WSJ's Gerald F. Seib, on an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll out at dawn - “Get Ready for an Anti-Incumbent Wave”: “[A]mong those who appear most likely to vote, … the Republicans own a dramatic 49% to 40% advantage [on whether respondents prefer that November's vote produce a Congress controlled by Democrats or by Republicans]. If that kind of lead holds, Republicans would almost certainly take back control of the House.”
--Stuart Rothenberg moves 20 House races toward Republicans -- “Wave builds for GOP in the House”: “National and local polls continue to show further deterioration in Democratic prospects. Given that, we are increasing our target of likely Republican gains from 28-33 seats to 37-42 seats, with the caveat that substantially larger GOP gains in the 45-55 seat range are quite possible. The next few weeks will be crucial, as Democratic incumbents seek to drive up Republican challengers' negatives and strengthen their standing in ballot tests.” http://bit.ly/bNxOUN
--At this weekend's annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, three of the five forecasts predicted that Republicans would gain majority control of the House of Representatives, Huffington Post reported. http://huff.to/b1FIcG
The major driver:
--NBC/WSJ finds that “Recovery Summer” was a bust: In May, 40 percent of respondents said the economy would get better in the next 12 months. Now, that figure is 26 percent.
One part of me wants to say that the GOP is peaking too early; but then I look back and realize that the landscape has been locked since late last Fall. At that point, it was easy to tell what looked on the horizon. Of course, to point it out back then and meant going into the headwind of a lot of denial, and hopey-change belief-- that the economy would turn the corner.
The only argument for saying its too early a peak is that there are 7 weeks to go. This is a good tough ad in battleground states by AFSCME. It could do more to call out Republicans even more, but it does offer a contrast:
Tags: (all tags)