GOP '12 hopefuls
by Jerome Armstrong, Tue Sep 07, 2010 at 04:05:06 PM EDT
This is true:
The 2012 presidential race will begin Nov. 3, the day after this fall's congressional election.
For the Dems:
The other, predictable question about Democratic strategy in 2012 is whether the president will dump his vice president from the ticket—in this case, dropping Joe Biden in favor of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. But this is a recurring parlor game, and usually turns out to be a silly one.
First, I'm not 100% convinced that Obama will run again in 2012. If '10 happens like we now think, having a Republican-controlled Congress would open that question in his mind. Second, Clinton isn't who he would want there. Someone like Bloomberg makes much more sense as VP (not saying it doesn't have baggage just that its who he'd want). Third, the idea that somone is going to challenge Obama is still quite far-fetched.
For the GOP. Here's how I would rank the current GOP (with an eye toward Iowa):
Romney-- Frontrunner, but healthcare in MA is going to put him on the defensive too much. He should skip Iowa. Could be like Kerry in '04 and McCain in '08, and fade away alot only to resurface.
Gignrich-- Gonna get a lot of flirtation from voters. Big potential for leading in early polls. But not seen as electable. Fades in the end.
Palin-- Most likely to pull a Cuomo and not run, teasing it out, until the end.
Huckabee-- Not building anything, not the darkhorse, no momentum. All translates into not running.
Pawlenty-- Darkhorse status, good midwestern.Very good odds to win Iowa if Romney skips and Huckabee doesn't run.
Santorum-- I cannot believe this is possible. I guess if Huckabee, Beck and Palin don't run, Theocons have to have somewhere to go in Iowa.
Thune-- He voted for TARP. That's going to be an achilles heel if he starts out.
Daniels-- When I saw Daniels referred to as "diminutive" in the article above, it brought to mind the early criticism of Dean. In the small settings of Iowa caucuses, Daniels is going to do very well.
Johnson-- Not mentioned in the article, but if Ron Paul doesn't win, then Johnson has the anti-war, pro-pot, libertarian voters as a base; plus a lot of potential soft Dem/Indy crossover appeal in caucuses.
Mr Millionaire-- They've dropped in quite successfully in a number of GOP primaries this cycle. Businessman not part of the political establishment. I would look for someone to do this in Iowa and could be pretty successful in getting wildfire-like support.
UPDATE: Barbour. How could I forget. Well, to me it rings like Biden or Dodd did, in 2008. Nationally, he has not a shot, but would get a lot of money, fwiw.
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