by Jerome Armstrong, Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 09:05:42 PM EDT
Well, this is a first I believe. A campaign using TMZ to push out damage control (Meg). Jerry Brown being elected Gov again-- pinch me.
There are rumbles that part of the post-election repurcusions will be that Pelosi is outsted as Speaker, even if Democrats do maintain control of the House by a slim margin. if Democrats do lose the House, Steny Hoyer thinks he has the votes to become minority leader.
The latest Grayson poll sucks. Its still close, high 36-43, but not where an incumbent wants to be at this point. The Taliban Dan ad came after these poll results. That the campaign is tring to shake up the race is a good thing.
OK, say the House loses are greater than the number I pulled out a while ago-- 50 seats. Like into the 70's.
In the Senate, the latest look at the numbers reveals a lot of changes since the last look.
Everyone expects Republicans to win a lot of Senate seats. Boxer however looks a lot safer, so does Murray in WA. However, looks like WV is slipping away. The tally right now of the polls shows a gain of 8 seats by Republicans. That would leave the Democrats at 51. Right on the edge is NV. The next seat on the edge now is CT.
If the Democrats are at 50 seats, Lieberman will flip to the GOP.
Its a very fascinating Gov race in MN. The Independence Party candidate is surging, as the Tea Party took over the Republican primary. Dayton, the Dem, is well in the lead now, but if the IP's Horner overtakes Emmer, he could win.
Cook Co. Sheriff Tom Dart is emerging as the CW opponent of Emanuel:
Chicago politicos are unsure if anyone has what it takes to beat Emanuel, a campaigner of mythical status, but to a person, most believe he is vulnerable. He may even face challenges based on his actions as chief of staff, including the failure to pass immigration reform and his well-known revulsion for organized progressives.
Rahm's going to get wallopped.
This is a good deep poll (NBC/WSJ) to gaze at a pdf for a while... but things have been pretty baked since last Dec to now. Here's what a majority of the poll respondents want at an election outcome:
The influence of special interests is reduced: 70%
New people with few ties to the political process are elected: 69%
The Tea Party influences the Republican Party to become more conservative on fiscal issues: 50%
The Republicans take over the majority in Congress: 52%
The health care reform plan that was passed earlier this year is repealed: 51%
Most congressional representatives are defeated: 48%
OK, that last one's not quite a majority.
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