by Jerome Armstrong, Thu Sep 23, 2010 at 02:55:25 PM EDT
Here's a fascinating breakdown of the Independent voters, in regards to their make-up and their voting patterns over the past few cycles, done by Pew.
I wish that Pew would do another Mapping of the Political Landscape. The 2005 Political Typology is the fourth, following on previous studies in 1987, 1994 and 1999. They are certainly due.
Back to their most recent, and some findings:
- The proportion of independent voters or non-partisans is now at 37%, one of the highest levels in the past 20 years of Pew Research Center polling. The share of independent voters has grown from 34% of registered voters in 2008.
- The Democratic Party’s advantage in party identification among registered voters has narrowed from a 10-point gap last year to a five-point gap in 2010 as Democrats have lost adherents and the Republican Party has gained supporters.
- There has been little change in voting intentions over the course of the year. Registered voters have been closely divided in their preferences, while Republicans have enjoyed an advantage among voters most likely to cast a ballot in November.
- As in previous midterms, older independents are more likely to vote Republican than are voters younger than 50, and independent men are much more inclined to cast a GOP ballot than they were four years ago.
- Obama’s job approval rating among independent voters stands at just 39%; 50% disapprove of the president’s job performance. Still, Obama’s rating among independent voters is higher George W. Bush’s in September 2006 (29% approve/57% disapprove).
I hear or read all the time, about folks that say that Obama's numbers will turn around once the economy does. Thing is, these are the same folks that were saying that his numbers (and the underlying fate of the Democrats) would turn around once they passed the corporate healthcare reform this past Spring. Funny how that happens. Always wrong; always a reason to compromise one more time; never works.
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