The DeMint Republicans

Small government, vs Trent Lott, anti-establishment of the Republican Party. Jim DeMint's task is radically reshaping the Republican caucus:

As the midterms approach, Mr. DeMint is also up for re-election, but his hapless Democratic opponent, Alvin Greene, is fighting a felony pornography charge. So most of his focus is on the five to eight stalwart conservatives who might be joining him in the Senate next year, and in the fight for limited government...

Their agenda:

"You need to start by putting a cap on spending."

...Next he says, "we may not be able to repeal ObamaCare, but we can cut off the funding." Will they really? "Yes, if you have a wave of new people coming in—they've all campaigned on it."

...Then, he says, sell Chrysler and GM. "It doesn't matter how much money we lose; let's get out of it." He also wants to privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac so we can "get out of running the housing industry." He also wants to see a low-rate flat income or consumption tax.

The eight (and whom they would defeat):

KY: Rand Paul - Jim Bunning
FL: Marco Rubio -  George Lemeiux
UT: Mike Lee - Bob Bennett
PA: Pat Toomey - Arlen Specter
CO: Ken Buck - Michael Bennet
NV: Sharon Angle - Harry Reid
WA: Dino Rossi - Patti Murrary
WI: Ron Johnson  - Russ Fiengold

Its also not even close to a sure thing that all eight of them win, but its a pretty radical shift that's happened just in the nomination procedure. Aside from WA's Rossi, none of the DeMint candidates was the establishment favorite 18 months ago, to be the Republican nominee.

2010 was suppossed to be a good year for Democrats to make gains in the Senate (going by partisan make-up). Instead, its the Conservative Movement Republicans whose year is shaping up.

Its not much better, as far as the Senate makeup goes, for Democratic establishment when we look out over the next two cycles. Over the upcoming Senate contests in 2012 and 2014, its pretty clear that Democrats are going to be mostly on the defense.

The 2012 election will feature just 8 Republican incumbents; 22 Democratic votes will face re-election. And Joe Lieberman. 2014, not much better. 20 Democrats, 13 Republicans.

In 2011-12, without a doubt, Joe Lieberman will be the target (and likely a Republican one), and Chris Murphy the arrow. Scott Brown of MA will be a target; Ensign in Nevada will likely lose a primary; Texan Hutchinson may as well; Utah's Orin Hatch may too. But after that, its all defense for Dems.

Back to 2010. I open up this Newsweek article titled, "Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath", thinking... maybe somethings turned?

Skipping to the poll results.  Putting the happy-talk title aside, what this poll shows is that Democrats at right now at their lowest point in over 12 years.

Looking at the Independents lean-- it reads blowout. By a 45 - 33 margin, they go Republican. Newsweek only goes back to '98, but Dems were never even below 40% prior to this poll. The Republican high-water mark was 46, just before the '02 mid-term.

I'm not sure where the other 22% is going of the Independents. Its interesting, because that's the highest of the poll's history-- especially this close to the election. Could mean there is more than usual volitility at play. If that means they go Dem in the swing states, then some of the Repubicans above will lose. If even close to half go Republican or don't show up, then yes, a bloodbath.

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Comments

7 Comments

Damn

you pre-empted a post I had for Monday.

by Charles Lemos 2010-08-29 07:48AM | 0 recs
RE: Damn

I know you've seen this coming. The post begs the question of where is "The ______ Democrats" going to come from?  I don't even think its on the horizon, but still, I think the energy is there for more primaries. But look, not a single sitting Senator had even the guts to back Bill Halter. Pretty pathetic.

by Jerome Armstrong 2010-08-29 04:38PM | 0 recs
RE: Damn

Steve Moore had an interview with DeMint in the WSJ on Friday.

You should also read DeMint's January 2009 lecture "The American Option: A Job Plan That Works" that he gave at the Heritage Foundation. That's the clearest ideological portrait you'll find of DeMint.

The GOP is the party of Jim DeMint. He disdains the title of kingmaker but come 2012 of whomever he endorses in the South Carolina primary that's precisely what he'll be. My sense is that whoever wins the South Carolina GOP primary come 2012 will be the GOP nominee.


by Charles Lemos 2010-08-29 05:16PM | 0 recs
RE: Damn

Good point about SC. You see Obama's comments about the next two years being about "debt and deficits"? I can't imagine he's going to walk right into DeMint's ideology and embrace it, but he's just working by polls for '12 at this point.

by Jerome Armstrong 2010-08-30 11:39AM | 0 recs
If all eight win...

We'll have a GOP senate in 2011, and the GOP is on track for over 60 Senators by 2014, even a slight chance of 67 (constitutional amendment territory) by then.  The Dems have to worry about 2012 losses in the House to redistricting.  This isn't pretty.

Cutting off funding for HCR could lead to a governement shutdown--who's going to get the blame? 

by esconded 2010-08-29 08:57AM | 0 recs
Republicans would likely get the blame

They were elected to fix the economy, not push an extreme agenda.  This would backfire on them big time. 

by Kent 2010-08-29 10:11AM | 0 recs
RE: If all eight win...

So which seems more likely (or all of the below) as a result of the losses:

1) it will dislodge some from the Democrats, maybe an Independent Tea Party like with progressive-libertarian blend

2) it will be a call for many that now they really need Obama, so rally around

3) The possibility a significant part of Dem establishment will want to dump Obama

by Jerome Armstrong 2010-08-29 04:56PM | 0 recs

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