House Contests

The primaries are in the last month, and the GE is beginning to take shape. Am putting a few lists in the extended, as I begin to take note of what the NRCC and the DCCC are paying for, in terms of their polling and findings about which seats are vulnerable.

Its so difficult to do any sort of seat by seat analysis, as you really only get the nuance if you are in touch with the CD. But I am more interested is seeing this as a marker of sorts.

As for predictions, I've been at about 50 seats that the Dems would lose in the House ever since the '09 results came out, and don't see any reason to alter that outlook.

The DCCC is at $49M that they are spending, the NRCC at $17M, but I'm not one to believe the money matters to the point of the disparity (given that most of it is spent by lazy TV media consultants that waste more then they target effectively--and its worse on the Dem side). It matters, but is not the whole story.

Dems targeting and defending 60 seats, Reps 40. Where the lack of money does come in question, is that the Republicans ought to be targeting 80 seats. We'll likley see an expanded GOP list by around Labor Day.

The DCCC's first defense list:

Alabama Rep. Bobby Bright; Arizona Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick, Harry Mitchell, and Gabrielle Giffords; California Rep. Jerry McNerney; Colorado Rep. Betsy Markey; Florida Reps. Allen Boyd and Suzanne Kosmas; Iowa Rep. Leonard Boswell; Illinois Reps. Debbie Halvorson and Bill Foster; Indiana Reps. Joe Donnelly and Baron Hill; Missouri Rep. Ike Skelton; Michigan Rep. Mark Schauer, Mississippi Rep. Travis Childers; North Carolina Rep. Larry Kissell; North Dakota Rep. Earl Pomeroy; New Mexico Rep. Harry Teague; Nevada Rep. Dina Titus; New York Reps. Bill Owens and Michael Arcuri; Ohio Reps. Steve Driehaus, Betty Sutton, Mary Jo Kilroy, Zack Space, and John Boccieri; Pennsylvania Reps. Kathy Dahlkemper, Chris Carney, Paul Kanjorski and Mark Critz; South Carolina Rep. John Spratt; South Dakota Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin; Texas Reps. Chet Edwards and Ciro Rodriguez; Virginia Reps. Tom Perriello, Glenn Nye and Gerry Connolly; and Wisconsin Rep. Steve Kagen.

Then added:

Here is the full list of seats in the DCCC’s new set of reservations: Arkansas’s 1st District, Arkansas’s 2nd District, Delaware At-Large, Florida’s 25th District, Hawaii’s 1st District, Illinois’s 10th District, Indiana’s 8th District, Louisiana’s 2nd District, Massachusetts’s 10th District, Maryland’s 1st District, Michigan’s 1st District, New Hampshire’s 1st District, New Hampshire’s 2nd District, Oregon’s 5th District, Pennsylvania’s 7th District, Pennsylvania’s 15th District, Tennessee’s 8th District, Washington’s 3rd District, Wisconsin’s 7th District, and West Virginia’s 1st District.

The NRCC list:

Here are the full list of districts the NRCC plans to air ads in: Alabama’s 2nd District, Arkansas’s 1st District, California’s 11th District, Colorado’s 4th District, Florida’s 2nd District, Florida’s 8th District, Florida’s 24th District, Georgia’s 8th District, Illinois’s 10th District, Illinois’s 11th District, Indiana’s 2nd District, Indiana’s 8th District, Indiana’s 9th District, Kansas’s 3rd District, Kentucky’s 6th District, Maryland’s 1st District, Michigan’s 1st District, Michigan’s 7th District, Mississippi’s 1st District, New Hampshire’s 1st District, Nevada’s 3rd District, New Mexico’s 2nd District, New York’s 20th District, New York’s 24th District, North Dakota At-Large, Ohio’s 1st District, Ohio’s 15th District, Ohio’s 16th District, Pennsylvania’s 3rd District, Pennsylvania’s 7th District, Pennsylvania’s 11th District, South Carolina’s 5th District, South Dakota At-Large, Tennessee’s 8th District, Texas’s 17th District, Texas’s 23rd District, Virginia’s 2nd District, Virginia’s 5th District, and West Virginia’s 1st District, Wisconsin’s 7th District.

Tags: (all tags)

Comments

14 Comments

Maybe we can plan for 2014 as our comeback year

We just have to hope Obama loses in 2012.  The sooner he's out of the picture, the better for Democrats.  Remember how quickly Republicans recovered once Bush was out of office?

by Kent 2010-08-17 02:22PM | 0 recs
RE: Maybe we can plan for 2014 as our comeback year

The problem I have with this argument is the damage that GOP will do when they come back into power. 

 

by Charles Lemos 2010-08-17 06:19PM | 0 recs
RE: Maybe we can plan for 2014 as our comeback year

This may have cut the mustard back in '06--in an era of a Republican president and Congress--when liberals were snookered into voting for Rahm Emanuel Dems but those days are but a memory. 

Just this year the same Democrats in Washington that supposedly stand between us and Sharron Angle, et al, enacted a "health care" program that essentially turns the IRS into a collection agency for the insurance companies. 

Health care reform the individual mandate, cap-and-trade, that craptastic "stimulus" that wasn't, that finreg monstrosity--how long are we going to make excuses? Will it take a VAT and/or entitlement "reform" during the lame duck session to wake the stragglers up? 

Obama's presidency, I think, will prove pivotal for this staid two-party system we have now: simply because the days when the mere election of a Democrat was an automatic harbinger of progress are decidedly over. In order for elections in this country to matter once again, we've got to seriously reform the Democratic Party. Otherwise we're just locked between Scylla and Charybdis; a Republican party of neocons, corporate thugs, and petty bourgeois types and a Democratic party for wealthy left-wing oligarchs. It's unsustainable.

by Jack Landsman 2010-08-18 12:09AM | 0 recs
RE: Maybe we can plan for 2014 as our comeback year

I agree. I've noted before that is time for a progressive Green party.

Look progressives are never going to achieve power directly given current institutional arrangements but we can get our agenda enacted by building a progressive left that can claim a 20% share of the electorate. That's how much of the progressive agenda of the 1910s became enacted. 

The other path is to wait for collapse and hope that out of the ashes, the left can succinctly make the case for a more egalitarian country. It is inequality that is breeding our breakdown. A broad-based prosperity was built on a progressive income tax.

by Charles Lemos 2010-08-18 06:48PM | 0 recs
They will do damage if they simply gain back the House

You think Obama is going to stand up Republicans if they control the House when he wouldnt even do so when they were a miniscule minority?

by Kent 2010-08-18 12:19AM | 0 recs
RE: They will do damage if they simply gain back the House

Dude, I'm done with Obama. Understand, I don't buy into this convenient little narrative of Barack Obama as a progressive but a "pragmatic" one or even a cowardly one. He's a left-wing corporatist. When the rubber meets the road and it's time to deliver for the people who brought him to the dance, that's when you see the political acumen and ruthlessness of the Obama White House. Often those evil Republicans are used as a foil, or strawmen, for the specific purpose of allowing Bob Gibbs to be able to trash the "professional" left for failing to see how much of an improvement Obama is over Bush and how "tough" the political realities of DC are.

For specific examples, recall how all the (usually temidly) progressive features were excised from the health care and financial reform proposals as they were making their way through Congress.

It's not us, and Obama sort of, against the Republicans. (That's not reality--that's simply how hyper-partisan flunkies like Anthony Weiner sleep at night.) The truth, I think, is far more distressing and, again, the sooner the stragglers wake up to that, the better. Or get used to voting for Ralph Nader until he dies.

by Jack Landsman 2010-08-18 12:39AM | 0 recs
RE: They will do damage if they simply gain back the House

I don't think the Green Party is going to happen at the national level. There's just not a crowd of people waiting for it. Much more likely is for progressives to have an economic alliance with people that we might disagree with on some social issues. As it is, progressives are in line with those who agree with us socially, but are ruining the the country with their economics.

by Jerome Armstrong 2010-08-18 07:41PM | 0 recs
RE: They will do damage if they simply gain back the House

I'm not hitching my hopes to the Green Party at all. My reference to Nader was a nod to Ralph the Independent. My ultimate point was that if there isn't some significant intra-party realignments in this country, populist leftists will be left with nothing more than a sardonic protest vote for Ralph Nader every four years until he, quite literally, dies. 

The second point about a possible union between populists on the right and left is awesome but it's also a long view. Thanks to the Obamas, we're going to first experience the ascendancy of right-wing populism. And while some think I'm crazy, I'm specifically talking about Sarah Palin. I told people a year ago when she resigned that she was doing so in order to make money and raise her profile; both things absolutely necessary in order for her to imitate Reagan's insurgent campaign at the expense of Obama and Mitt Romney. I still feel that way and I think Palin's going to surprise everyone. She may even go all the way. And then... she's going to sell out her tea party devotees in much the same way Obama sold out progressives after fooling them; because Sarah Palin is simply Barack Obama without an Ivy League degree and a much lower IQ. As much as I like her, I know she doesn't know, or care, one whit about anything serious. She just wants to be the most famous, heroic, and powerful person in the world, and ride around on Air Force One. Obama. 

The next Republican president (whomever that is) has to implode before the right-wing economic populists have no place to turn except some sort of radical alliance with populist leftists. Which makes a successful primary challenge to President Obama all the more critical. Obama needs to be succeeded by FDR, not a stunted Reagan. 

 

by Jack Landsman 2010-08-18 11:00PM | 0 recs
RE: House Contests

Jay and Kent-

Unless your attitudes change, I'm done with MyDD. I'm sorry you didn't get your wish (President McCain) in 2008 so the Dems could name thier score this year.

And WHEN IS MyDD GOING TO BAN KENT? I AM SICK AND TIRED OF LISTENING TO DEFEATIST LITTLE JERK"S RANTS!

 

Oh I forgot. He gives Jerome affirmation.

by spirowasright 2010-08-18 01:08AM | 0 recs
RE: House Contests

Let me see if I can understand this: you're ready to rip off your hair shirt in a pique and leave the whole MyDD because of two peon commenters?

Mr. President, I presume?

by Jack Landsman 2010-08-18 08:44AM | 0 recs
RE: House Contests

Actually, Mr. Defeatist Prick, I didn't vote for Obama. I'm just a citizen and student of history who has seen all this beflore and am more than a little put off by all the Obama-bashing in the liberal blogosphere.

The temper of the times my be on your side no matter what happens on Nov. 2, and all you do is bellyache while encouraging Jerome and his little buddy Kent Limbaugh, along with the rest of the PUMA preserve in their incessant moaning and groaning.

I didn't vote for Obama, but I'm honest enough to recognize that he has accomplshed a great deal in less than two years and a lot of it has been for the greater good, which is more than I can say for all of you in the Blog Birch Society.

So what else is new?

by spirowasright 2010-08-18 01:09PM | 0 recs
RE: House Contests

Once again I must genuflect before your logic and its self-evident superiority. I mean, normally you'd think a person would have forfeited their right to be sanctimonious about criticizing the president when--wait for it!--they didn't even vote for him. Incredible. For all of my hostility towards this feckless lawprof, I at least voted for him. (And although I find Sarah Palin, for example, to be a little adorable, I didn't think for a second about voting for that Republican ticket, nor can I fathom voting for her in 2012.) Roffle. 

And btw: I wasn't inquiring about your voting habits. I was snarking you, and insinuating that you are, in fact, the president himself. 

Or maybe his wife on second thought. 

 

 

by Jack Landsman 2010-08-18 05:55PM | 0 recs
RE: House Contests

Once again I must genuflect before your logic and its self-evident superiority. I mean, normally you'd think a person would have forfeited their right to be sanctimonious about criticizing the president when--wait for it!--they didn't even vote for him. Incredible. For all of my hostility towards this feckless lawprof, I at least voted for him. (And although I find Sarah Palin, for example, to be a little adorable, I didn't think for a second about voting for that Republican ticket, nor can I fathom voting for her in 2012.) Roffle. 

And btw: I wasn't inquiring about your voting habits. I was snarking you, and insinuating that you are, in fact, the president himself. 

Or maybe his wife on second thought. 

 

 

by Jack Landsman 2010-08-18 05:55PM | 0 recs
RE: House Contests

Sorry about the double post. Ugh.

by Jack Landsman 2010-08-18 05:55PM | 0 recs

Diaries

Advertise Blogads