Big F'n Disaster
by Jerome Armstrong, Wed Jul 07, 2010 at 03:45:28 PM EDT
Or, how do you get everything wrong.
Only 26% have a favorable view of Vice President Joe Biden's job performance, while nearly half (45%) have a negative view of his job.
Over the past year, Obama has lost support among all party groups, though the decline has been steeper among independents than among Republicans or Democrats. Today's 38% approval rating among independents is 18 percentage points lower than the 56% found July 6-12, 2000.
Which begs for the previous comparison:
Obama is not alone in facing a challenging second year in office — Bill Clinton (43%), Ronald Reagan (42%), and Jimmy Carter (40%) all were below the majority approval level in July of their second year.
But that sort of skimming the top analysis lacks context. It'd be historically unprecedented for Obama to have the sort of reversal that Reagan achieved, or even Clinton, from now until the end of his Presidency. That's because Obama is also the most polarizing President ever.
Obama achieved that feat a mere year into his Presidency (the result of the attempt at playing a bipartisan hand in Congress while elevating Limbaugh/Palin/Tea Party grassroots with engaged attacks), with a net negative reaching 65% between Republicans and Democrats. The net negative stands at 69% now, 18 months into the Obama Presidency. For perspective, the highs of the others mentioned above:
The partisan nature of Obama's divide means he's very unlikely to dramatically change the poll numbers; like Democrats did against Bush, once Republicans have turned against Obama in this environment, there's no reason to look back. Here's their take:
Obama, like any winning Democratic presidential candidate, put together a coalition of independents and core liberals. That has now unraveled, as independent voters have come to see him not as a post-partisan, fiscally responsible, and coolly efficient leader but rather as a hyper-partisan and statist liberal who’s not all that competent.
About 80-85% of Democrats is where he is likely to have as a high point too. Which brings us back to Independents.
And the kicker: Many of the Independents or soft Democrats that Democratic candidates most need to win, identify themselves with the Tea Party.
Every single commentator I read that posted about the recent Gallup poll on the Tea Party came to the same lame conclusion: 79% of them identifying with the Tea Party likewise identified with the Republican Party. 79% equals the same thing! How insightful; hence, there's no difference... cut to the Jr. High discourse.
The more relevant item from that Gallup poll of Tea Party supporters is more telling about the 2010 landscape. Among the 54% of Democrats and Independents among the wider population polled by Gallup, 39% of that total are Tea Party supporters-- that's the other 21% of supporters. Folks like E.J. Dionne ("Democrats will spend their time chasing votes they will never win."), do us a favor and never get anywhere near to laying out a strategy a close election depends upon for winning.
Democrats have no chance at all of winning those 39% of different type of Democratic voters and pure Independents? We might as well give up!
...elections are usually won by the party that captures “the center” and can peel off independent support from the other party. To be sure, a chunk of the independents have usually been dissatisfied former Republicans in recent elections, but during other years a good chunk of independents have also been dissatisfied Democrats. Independents may also include those who never belonged to a party as well.
You can even be an Obama loyalist and get this by just remembering Iowa's 2008 primary. Why so many now have lost that simple understanding must be due to the partisan climate, especially in the blogosphere where much of whats posted is like-minded speaking to like-minded, sharing shallow thoughts mistaken as facts.
The Harris conclusion:
People are unhappy, they need someone to blame and those in power are the ones feeling the heat at the moment. How this translates at the ballot boxes in November is still unknown. The next four months should be interesting to watch as politicians scramble for their political lives. There might be one bright spot for Republicans and Democrats in Congress - they are both at such low points in job approval, there might not be any place to go but up.
Maybe, but I wouldn't bet on it at this time.
Tags: (all tags)