Concrete starting to dry
by Jerome Armstrong, Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 02:33:36 PM EDT
The NPR poll out today is dire for Democrats and Obama.
Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies conducted a poll of 1,200 "likely" voters in 60 battleground districts that elected Democrats in 2008 (one of the seats is vacant) and 10 districts now represented by Republicans. The full poll, including the list of battleground districts, is here.
Here's an interesting point:
President Obama’s approval rating is at 40 percent in the Democratic districts, but it slightly better at 48 percent in the Republican districts where he outpaced John McCain in 2008.
ie, though likely to lose with Obama baggage are many Democrats in vulnerable CD's, there are some Republican-held CD's where Obama is not such a negative load, and a Democratic challenger might upset the incumbent.
This will be an interesting challenge, as groups like the DCCC are going to have to decide to cut ties with incumbents that are likely to lose, in order to fund challengers more likely to win-- a tall order for an organization that runs on incumbency entitlement to funds. But, it could also make the difference in picking up, or not, 5 or so seats too.
Larry Sabato is at +32 for Republicans.
Swingometer, using the +10 '08 result and the latest Republican +5 generic on Gallup result, is at +39 for Republicans.
Conservative Jim Geraghty has a list of 90 Dems he thinks are vulnerable (about 50 of them make my cut).
Any others? It's looking like about a toss-up for the Dems to keep the House at this point.
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