Concrete starting to dry

The NPR poll out today is dire for Democrats and Obama.

Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies conducted a poll of 1,200 "likely" voters in 60 battleground districts that elected Democrats in 2008 (one of the seats is vacant) and 10 districts now represented by Republicans. The full poll, including the list of battleground districts, is here.

Here's an interesting point:

President Obama’s approval rating is at 40 percent in the Democratic districts, but it slightly better at 48 percent in the Republican districts where he outpaced John McCain in 2008.

ie, though likely to lose with Obama baggage are many Democrats in vulnerable CD's, there are some Republican-held CD's where Obama is not such a negative load, and a Democratic challenger might upset the incumbent.

This will be an interesting challenge, as groups like the DCCC are going to have to decide to cut ties with incumbents that are likely to lose, in order to fund challengers more likely to win-- a tall order for an organization that runs on incumbency entitlement to funds. But, it could also make the difference in picking up, or not, 5 or so seats too.

Larry Sabato is at +32 for Republicans.

Swingometer, using the +10 '08 result and the latest Republican +5 generic on Gallup result, is at +39 for Republicans.

Conservative Jim Geraghty has a list of 90 Dems he thinks are vulnerable (about 50 of them make my cut).

Any others?  It's looking like about a toss-up for the Dems to keep the House at this point.

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Comments

7 Comments

Screw Barack Obama

He has destroyed the majority we worked so hard for in 2006 and now we will probably never get it back because Republicans hold the key of redistricting to lock us out of the House for a generation.

My advice is for Democrats to run as far away as possible from Barack Obama and even attack him when needed.  He has destroyed this party.  I hope to hell we get this cancer off our backs after 2012 and can rebuild the party, because he is screwing us. 

by Kent 2010-06-15 05:54PM | 0 recs
New AP poll out today...

With Dems at +7.. plug that into the "swingometer".  Why are you using a right wing site, anyways?

Gallup will not be +5 after next week, not with Obama hititng 50% today.  A week ago it was even...

There is a lot in flux at the moment in polling... lots of strange results...  SwingStateProject calculates numbers similar to Sabato based on that NPR poll. 

by LordMike 2010-06-15 06:44PM | 0 recs
RE: New AP poll out today...

Well, the poll had Dems at 46 and Republicans at 35 in % of respondents, a totally unrealistic picture at this point in time of the turnout, but believe what you will. This was interesting:

 

Poll issue priorities:

Economy 91

Gulf spill 87 (way up)

Unemployment 83

Education 83

Terrorism 78

Deficit 77

Healthcare 77 (down)

Energy 74  (up)

Environment 72 (way up)

Afghanistan 70 (up)

Taxes 68

Iraq 67 (up)

Immigration 65

Foreign relations 64

Gas Prices 62 (down)

 

by Jerome Armstrong 2010-06-15 06:59PM | 0 recs
RE: New AP poll out today...

A predicton of a 32 seat loss leaves no room for error.  Not when factoring in the "macro" trends that Charlie Cook talks about that will kill Democrats in other districts that we dont expect.  What a great year for Democrats to fuck up, a crucial redistricting year. 

by Kent 2010-06-15 11:35PM | 0 recs
we have a better than 50/50 chance of holding

the House in my opinion. PA-12 should have been an easy pickup for Republicans. They are going to struggle in a lot of districts they "should" win.

I think we will lose 25-30 seats (net).

by desmoinesdem 2010-06-15 10:41PM | 1 recs
Can I get a taker on a simple wager?

Magic number of 30 net losses.  I'll take the under--even money.  Because aggregate data don't tell the story on the ground or district-by-district and because the concrete doesn't really start to dry in June, and because of teabaggery.

by Thaddeus 2010-06-16 10:05AM | 0 recs
But this isn't aggregate data

Its not a national ballot, only in the most vulnerable districts. Obviously individual race polling is better, but it isnt good.

 

But DMD makes a good point about PA-12. That needs to factor into any narrative. All those vulnerable Dems voted against us and the Pres across the board; they can just copy the strategy of populism with social conservatism.

by bay of arizona 2010-06-16 10:29PM | 0 recs

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