PA-SEN: Sestak and Specter Tied

Yesterday morning, Marc Ambinder Tweeted, "Senior Dem Politico in DC thinks Sestak will beat Specter. WH puts odds at 50-50." Now we know why.

In the latest Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll of the PA-SEN Democratic primary, retired Admiral Rep. Joe Sestak is tied with incumbent Arlen Specter. Both candidates are polling at 43% with N = 410 LVs, a 5% MOE, live interviewers, and a time frame of May 3-6. In Muhlenberg's previous poll, conducted May 2-5, Specter led 45-40. Prior to that, it was 49-40 for Specter. While a tie is certainly within the MOE, you can't deny that these polls show a trend and that it's not good news for Specter. RCP shows an average of Specter up 3.4, but since they only include the latest poll from each firm, their numbers don't reflect the last week's trend. Also in the latest poll, Specter's favorable rating remains slightly higher than Sestak's, but his unfavorables are much higher - 54-34 Specter and 48-13 Sestak.

It's been a rough few weeks for Specter. He mused aloud that maybe he should have stayed a Republican, and Sestak has taken the opportunity to hit him hard for the party switch with a tough new ad:

Hey Arlen, still think it's a good idea to smear our vets for their service? That may work for Repubs, but you keep forgetting - you're a Democrat now, and we don't stand for that kind of anti-American bull.

Elsewhere in new polling, Dems continue to cruise toward victory in AZ-GOV against all candidates, including the pro-profiling incumbent Jan Brewer, and two separate polls show Sen. Patty Murray finally finding her footing against Repub Dino Rossi in WA-SEN.

Tags: PA-Sen, 2010 midterms, Arlen Specter, Joe Sestak, AZ-Gov, WA-Sen, PA-Sen, 2010 midterms, Arlen Specter, Joe Sestak, AZ-Gov, WA-Sen (all tags)

Comments

14 Comments

Sestak has already helped Dems

He made Arlen not only a reliabe Dem vote, but also become a strong voice against Republicans on TV. It'll be cool if Sestak wins the primary. I think he is a better shot in the general anyway. Although I think both Sestak and Specter can beat Toomey.

by Lolis 2010-05-07 05:18PM | 1 recs
that's a devastating ad

If it's running in heavy rotation, Sestak should win this primary.

by desmoinesdem 2010-05-07 05:54PM | 1 recs
RE: that's a devastating ad

The part where Specter says, "To be re-elected" is very creepy... It's powerful.  The rest of the ad is ho hum, but that clp... wow!

Hey, demoinesdem, did you see the recent poll that has Bransdtad and Grassley's numbers way down?  It's a research 2000 poll, but still nice to see!

Thanks for all your hard work.  You do a great job reporting on the state of Iowa.

by LordMike 2010-05-07 07:25PM | 0 recs
RE: that's a devastating ad

Thanks, I saw that poll and posted about it at Bleeding Heartland today. I'll cross-post at MyDD over the weekend--didn't want to bump stuff down the page today.

by desmoinesdem 2010-05-07 10:26PM | 0 recs
RE: that's a devastating ad

Readership is dropping - I think the more daily content we can get, the better.

by Nathan Empsall 2010-05-08 12:37AM | 0 recs
Huh

Nathan, you slamming Specter for smearing vets? What did you say when Murtha called our troops murderers?

by BuckeyeBlogger 2010-05-07 10:13PM | 0 recs
Murtha is dead you asshole

Dont you Republicans have any respect at all?

by Kent 2010-05-07 10:36PM | 0 recs
RE: Huh

I believe that the late Col. Murtha, who earned a Bronze Star and two Purple Hearts, more than earned the right to question the details of dubious wartime events. 24 citizens were killed - war heroes are allowed to question the official story if it doesn't jive with their own experiences and understandings. Crimes do happen in war, and there's nothing wrong with investigating them. Only a simpleton blinded by his own ideology would doubt that. It's much different when a politician tries to score cheap points by smearing an opponent's record decades after the fact with nothing to back up his attacks.

I supported Specter until he launched that crap. I liked him as a Republican and was delighted when he switched parties - but if I opposed it when it came from Bush and Isaakson, I have to oppose it from my guys, too. I've always liked both candidates, so it was a tough call to begin with and I avoided blogging about the race, but Specter sent me flying into Sestak's arms with that unpatriotic crap.

by Nathan Empsall 2010-05-08 12:36AM | 0 recs
Except

Murtha was wrong about the story and his accusation. His service didnt give him the right to say what he said. Worse he never apologized. And dont give me this nonsense, about we cant say anything because he is dead. Murtha was a thug of a politician, dying doesnt absolve him of that.

by BuckeyeBlogger 2010-05-08 10:33AM | 0 recs
Murder never call them murderers

don't you Fox News whores ever get tired of just sprewing talking points?

by DTOzone 2010-05-08 01:41PM | 0 recs
RE: Except

So is that what you do? Whenever you know someone is right about something you don't like, you change the subject? You prefer the more moderate Specter, but you know what he did was wrong, so instead of talking about that you bring up a dead person who has nothing to do with the current Senate race. Classy, Bebe, classy.

by Nathan Empsall 2010-05-08 01:48PM | 0 recs
RE: Except

No sir ,just pointing our your hypocrisy. But than again, you also believe in man made global warming.....junk science....flawed junk science....

by BuckeyeBlogger 2010-05-08 09:14PM | 0 recs
RE: Except

You pointed out my hypocrisy? Where? I haven't seen you do anything close to that... certainly not in any of your comments on this thread...

And I'll be sure to let NASA know you think so.

by Nathan Empsall 2010-05-08 11:21PM | 0 recs
Is there a reason

why you're suddenly bringing up climate change? Like do you EVER stay on topic. Is that a Fox News rule?

by DTOzone 2010-05-09 11:55AM | 1 recs

Diaries

Advertise Blogads