UK change: 2005 to 2010
by Jerome Armstrong, Wed May 05, 2010 at 09:21:22 AM EDT
PoliticalBetting put a graph that is instructive for the change that has happened in the UK from 5/5/5 to 5/5/10 with relation to support of the political parties:
These show very little change from the 2005 election – the Conservatives are up 1, Labour down 2, the Liberal Democrats down 1 and the SNP up 3. If there was a uniform swing across Scotland on Thursday, it would result in only two seats changing hands – the SNP gaining Ochil and South Perthshire, and the Liberal Democrats gaining Edinburgh South.
The UK polling was done over the past week, with a very large sample. Barring a major shift on the last few days before the election tomorrow, this shows where the battlegrounds lay.
The Conservatives are ahead, but are they going to get 326 seats to avoid a humg parliament? Very doubtful; the betting is against it happening. The Conservatives have been trying to position themselves as the agents of change, recruiting candidates of color: Like a conjuror, we’ll get more applause if the audience cannot see exactly how the trick is performed; recruiting Obama campaign spinster Anita Dunn to help him out with debates (didn't exactly work out); to being the "Vote For Change" video candidate where they make a good case of leaving Labour but not of going Torie. Cameron makes one cynical of politics.
The Guardian announced Nick Clegg as the candidate of change. The Lib Dems are the alternative to Labour.
I'd break down the expectations for the Liberal Democrats such:
Below 80: A crushing blow to their best chance in decades.
80 - 100: Moderately well; better than '05 but not beyond what's now expected.
100 - 120: A big win for Clegg that results in the Lib Dems shaking up the system.
Above 120: London lights for the Lib Dems, surpassing expectations and are the story.
One other Lib Dem blogger I've been reading is Stephan Tall, who has an interesting read on the tactical voting that might, or might not occur. Support has fallen a bit for the Lib Dems over the past week. It should be a wild couple of weeks after the election tomorrow, with everything pointing toward a hung parliament.