AZ-Sen: Even If He Survives the Primary, John McCain Is Vulnerable
by Texas Nate, Tue May 25, 2010 at 04:06:30 PM EDT
Some very interesting polling coming out in AZ from Democratic Senate candidate Rodney Glassman, by way of The Political Carnival:
McCain is vulnerable as a majority of voters in Arizona dislike him, disapprove of the job he is doing as U.S. Senator, and are not inclined to vote to re-elect him. This provides an opportunity for Rodney Glassman to defeat the 28-year incumbent. [...]
Even if McCain can pull out a victory, this bodes well for Glassman’s campaign prospects.
Most incumbents who lose in the general election had previously faced a contentious primary election. The fact that McCain is going through a bruising primary that will likely remain close means he will come out of the primary with a fractured base, higher negatives, and a much smaller war chest than when he started. This is a formula for success for Rodney Glassman’s campaign as a challenger to a long-time incumbent.
McCain is under 50 percent in the polls on multiple measurements:
McCain is under 50 percent in the horserace vote against J.D. Hayworth among Republican primary voters in three (3) separate surveys. [...]
McCain is already under 50 percent against Rodney Glassman in a general election match-up. –McCain draws 48% to 35% for Glassman in the DailyKos/Research 2000 poll conducted in April.
The margin is similar in the PPP poll – 49% for McCain to 33% for Glassman.
Might be a good time to dust off your copy of Cliff Schecter's The Real McCain.