AZ-Sen: Even If He Survives the Primary, John McCain Is Vulnerable

Some very interesting polling coming out in AZ from Democratic Senate candidate Rodney Glassman, by way of The Political Carnival:

McCain is vulnerable as a majority of voters in Arizona dislike him, disapprove of the job he is doing as U.S. Senator, and are not inclined to vote to re-elect him. This provides an opportunity for Rodney Glassman to defeat the 28-year incumbent. [...]

Even if McCain can pull out a victory, this bodes well for Glassman’s campaign prospects.

Most incumbents who lose in the general election had previously faced a contentious primary election. The fact that McCain is going through a bruising primary that will likely remain close means he will come out of the primary with a fractured base, higher negatives, and a much smaller war chest than when he started. This is a formula for success for Rodney Glassman’s campaign as a challenger to a long-time incumbent.

McCain is under 50 percent in the polls on multiple measurements:

McCain is under 50 percent in the horserace vote against J.D. Hayworth among Republican primary voters in three (3) separate surveys. [...]

McCain is already under 50 percent against Rodney Glassman in a general election match-up. –McCain draws 48% to 35% for Glassman in the DailyKos/Research 2000 poll conducted in April.

The margin is similar in the PPP poll – 49% for McCain to 33% for Glassman.

Might be a good time to dust off your copy of Cliff Schecter's The Real McCain.


Tags: rodney glassman, AZ-Sen, John McCain, J.D. Hayworth (all tags)


1 Comment

The "incumbent rule"

That is that any incumbent polling under 50 % is in trouble, is probably overstated somewhat.  But given the fact that this guy is Mr. Arizona Senator and was Mr. GOP-nominee just two years ago probably doesn't bode well for him.  I'm sure a good portion of the discontent comes from the right, but it's hard to see McCain winning too many of those people over.  So a McCain poll under 50 % may actually give the Dem a chance. 

In a way, this goes back to McCain's selection of Sarah Palin for VP.  Once he did that, he killed his Maverick circa A.D. 2000 incarnation and had to go full-on crazy black helicopter.  That move precluded his running as a respectable independent a la Charlie Crist. 

by the mollusk 2010-05-25 04:19PM | 0 recs


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