Poll in Hawaii First Congressional District Gives GOP the Edge

In the race to fill former Congressman Neil Abercrombie who resigned to in order to run for the Governorship of the Aloha state, a new poll from the Honolulu Advertiser finds the GOP candidate Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou leading his two Democratic rivals former Congressman Ed Chase and State Senate President Colleen Hanabusa.

Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou has the advantage in the special election for Congress, a new Hawai'i Poll has found, giving Republicans the best opportunity in two decades to claim the urban Honolulu district.

Djou leads with 36 percent, former congressman Ed Case is chasing at 28 percent, and state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa is trailing with 22 percent. Thirteen percent were undecided.

The poll, taken for The Advertiser and Hawai'i News Now, confirms fears among Democrats that Case and Hanabusa could split the Democratic vote in the winner-take-all election and help Djou score a rare Republican upset.

The poll was conducted by Ward Research from April 23 through April 28 among 349 voters who said they were likely to mail back their ballots in the May 22 election. The margin of error was 5.2 percentage points.

The May 22nd election pits the three candidates against one another in a winner take-all format.

Tags: HA-01 Congressional District, US Politics (all tags)

Comments

23 Comments

Shades of Republicans during Watergate and Democrats in 1994

In 1974, Republicans lost five straight special House elections and in 1994, Democrats lost two.  Both signaled elections that would change the face of national politics for a decade or more.  Djou will likely win here and become an instant star for Republicans. 

by Kent 2010-05-02 09:12PM | 0 recs
RE: Shades of Republicans during Watergate and Democrats in 1994

He'll be a star like Anh Cao is a star. 2012 and boom.

by Nathan Empsall 2010-05-02 09:18PM | 0 recs
He will have this seat for life

Hawaii loves its incumbents. 

by Kent 2010-05-02 09:21PM | 0 recs
RE: He will have this seat for life

And just how many of those incumbents were elected with under 40% of the vote?

by Nathan Empsall 2010-05-03 12:16AM | 0 recs
RE: He will have this seat for life

Nathan-

Don't argue with this moron. I wish tehy'd ban Upstate kent's defeatist little rump.

by spirowasright 2010-05-03 02:04AM | 0 recs
RE: He will have this seat for life

Djou will likely get over 40%.  Ones that got under 50% and held on here were Cecil Heftel who beat a Republican 44%-39% in this district in 1976 held the seat for ten years until he ran for governor in 1986. 

by Kent 2010-05-03 02:38AM | 0 recs
Kent, you just prove you know nothing about elections......

Good God, do you make any effort at all to learn anything?

Djou is not on track in any sense to break 40%.

And Heftel won later because he was a Democrat.

It's a Democratic state, period.  The winner of the Democratic primary in September will win in November, and Djou is nothing but a seat-warmer if he pulls it off later this month.

by DCCyclone 2010-05-03 08:23AM | 0 recs
agree with 2012

Djou holds this seat in November.  2012 will be different, as the Dems regain some blue seats.

by esconded 2010-05-02 10:52PM | 0 recs
RE: agree with 2012

Djou will NOT win in November no matter what happens later this month.

Hawaii is too strongly Democratic for Djou to win a 2-way, and even this special election proves the point, with the two Democrats combined easily topping 60%, and Djou almost certainly on track to finish under 40.

Hawaii also is coming off a 2-term Republican Governor with the Democrats favored to take that office this November, and needless to say Obama's job approval is sky high here.

Djou will lose big in November no matter what the outcome of the special.

by DCCyclone 2010-05-03 08:26AM | 0 recs
RE: agree with 2012

Another poll came out today with Djou leading 36-34-20.

It's a Democratic poll, but no democrat has led in any of the four polls I've seen on this race.

by esconded 2010-05-03 09:14PM | 0 recs
Too hard to predict, and polling is unreliable......

It's awful hard to poll a special election, and it's that much harder to poll a 3-way.  The turnout model is awful hard to predict, and the psychology of Democrats in this case is harder to gauge--do they break late for whichever Democrat they view as stronger, or do they hold their ground and split the vote fatally?  And the all mail-in voting makes the turnout model even harder to predict, since every registered voter is automatically receiving a ballot.

On top of all this, Congressional Quarterly did a decent piece a few weeks ago on why Hawaii is harder to poll than other states, with ethnic cultural factors affecting response rates and white voters overrepresented in polls.  Corroborating this was the Hawaii polling in the 2004 Presidential election, which showed Bush stunningly competitive and the final two public polls, including one by the same Honolulu Advertiser the commissioned this special election poll, both showing up up a point; Kerry won the state comfortably, 54-45.

Ultimately there's no question Djou could win this special with a 30something% plurality, there's no doubting that.  But the polling can't be trusted with any precision except to confirm loosely that the race is an extremely competitive 3-way.

So don't be surprised if Djou wins later this month...but don't be surprised, either, if Case wins, or maybe even Hanabusa.

No matter who wins the special, the winner of the September primary will win in November.  If one of the Democrats wins this month, count on the same candidate highly likely winning the September primary--which is why neither Case nor Hanabusa was ever willing to drop out of the special for the good of the party.

by DCCyclone 2010-05-02 09:31PM | 1 recs
spending and the deficit

We progressives are going to have come up with more efficient and less bureaucratic ways of delivering the programs and policies we support.  And at some point that means cutting the government workforce.  This may sound asinine right now, but I just don't see us ever regaining the public's trust until we do that.

PA-12 will be about distict demograhics, but a likely loss in HI-01 is about spending and deficits.  And until we recognize that, we're sunk.

 

by esconded 2010-05-02 10:48PM | 1 recs
RE: spending and the deficit

Doesn't it have a little more to do with two Democrats splitting 60% of the vote?

by Steve M 2010-05-03 01:50PM | 0 recs
Democrats should not pass any more jobs bills

I dont want the Republican Congress getting credit for job creation in the next two years.  If anything, we should start cutting the 2011 budget to the bone and let the Republican Congress take the blame for the new recession that will emerge next year as the fed raises interest rates. 

by Kent 2010-05-03 02:34AM | 0 recs
RE: Democrats should not pass any more jobs bills

But I though you liked the Republcians Kent.

by spirowasright 2010-05-03 03:04AM | 0 recs
RE: Democrats should not pass any more jobs bills

Do you realize that you're putting politics before people?

Are you dense or just callous? I'm stunned that anyone on this blog would even entertain such a notion. 

by Charles Lemos 2010-05-03 03:05AM | 0 recs
polls

Not buying that we are going to lose HI, Case who is much more conservative than the conventional democrat in HI has some work to do, but he will come through though. I say we split both races PA12 going GOP and HI staying democratic

by olawakandi 2010-05-03 08:52AM | 0 recs
classic case of people versus political power

This race is being followed for a long time at FDL. Colleen Hanabusa has the backing of Hawaii's two democratic senators, AFSCME, AFL-CIO, Emily's list and is a widely popular Democratic state senator. Ed Case on the other hand is supported by DCCC and Washington "Democratic strategists". End result, what should have been an easy win for Hanabusa might well end up being a win for the Republican, due to splitting of Democratic votes. Welcome to the Third Way politics, where Washington backs "moderate" candidates and proceeds to fuck it all up. Another reason why people should donate to Act Blue and individual candidates instead of the Washington based political machinery.

by tarheel74 2010-05-03 12:38PM | 0 recs
Reading Liar Blog Fake poisons the mind

Welcome to the Third Way politics, where Washington backs "moderate" candidates and proceeds to fuck it all up.

The only thing that is effing this race up is two democratic candidates (and their egos) in a jungle primary.

It's a nice try, but Washington has nothing to do with this. They can back who they want, just as we can back who we want.

But there needs to be only one democratic candidate.

by NoFortunateSon 2010-05-03 02:01PM | 0 recs
I guess for people like you ignorance is bliss

But that's hardly an excuse to resort to petulant name-calling. Carry on living in your alternate reality.

by tarheel74 2010-05-03 02:54PM | 0 recs
One candidate should drop out

I don't care which, as long as it is the weaker one.

by NoFortunateSon 2010-05-03 05:26PM | 0 recs
Honestly

I think progressives are probably better off taking their chances with 6 months of Djou rather than letting a conservative Dem like Case claim the seat for life.

by Steve M 2010-05-03 01:51PM | 0 recs
RE: Honestly

Exactly, totally agree.

by Jerome Armstrong 2010-05-07 04:45PM | 0 recs

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