The Journal Never Learns
by Nathan Empsall, Thu May 13, 2010 at 01:07:23 AM EDT
The Wall Street Journal has an op-ed today from Karl Rove called, “How Badly Will The Democrats Do?” Why the Journal found Rove to be a trustworthy prognosticator, I’ll never know. Granted, he’s better than Dick Morris, but that’s not saying much. This go-round, Rove lists a variety of numbers regarding fundraising, primaries, polls, enthusiasm, etc., and comes to this conclusion about the 2010 midterms:
The White House has many tools to change the narrative to its advantage. But it's unlikely swing voters will abandon their concerns about ObamaCare, spending and deficits. The public, especially independents, increasingly believes Mr. Obama's policies threaten America's economic future.
Though this midterm election will likely turn on national concerns, it will still come down to individual contests. While a lot will play out over the next six months, there's no question good Republican candidates running effective races will make this a memorable, perhaps even epic, election for the GOP. Obama Democrats should beware.
Okay, but remember the last time he talked about individual contests, on NPR in 2006? Days before he GOP lost 30 House seats and the majority? Here’s the man’s track record:
SIEGEL: I'm looking at all the same polls that you are looking at.
ROVE: No, you are not. I'm looking at 68 polls a week for candidates for the US House and US Senate and Governor, and you may be looking at 4-5 public polls a week that talk attitudes nationally.
SIEGEL: I don't want to have you to call races...
ROVE: I'm looking at all of these Robert and adding them up. I add up to a Republican Senate and Republican House. You may end up with a different math but you are entitled to your math and I'm entitled to THE math.
SIEGEL: I don't know if we're entitled to a different math but your...
ROVE: I said THE math.
Okay, so, after all that, the Journal still gives the man’s predictions credibility… why, exactly?