A Gallup landslide
by Jerome Armstrong, Wed Apr 07, 2010 at 08:57:22 PM EDT
Its a landslide election coming, that's for sure. It's still too early to say how the individual races stack up. The Democrats have a headstart of not being surprised in having tough elections, and the Republicans have a long ways to go of riding what seems like a peak.
Plus, the indication is that its a "throw the bums out" which includes both Republicans and Democrats, although the Democrats being the party in power means a strict referendum falls exclusively in the Democratic incumbents lap.
The anti-incumbent numbers are mind-boggling. The previous peak was in '92 at 58% saying the members of congress didn't deserve re-election. On election day that year, the numbers were about 49/37 of not deserving/deserving re-election.
Today, those numbers are 65/28, and on the flip-side, Republicans have widened the enthusiasm gap again. True, the Democrats got a 11 point bounce, but Republicans got a 15 point bounce (both from their lows over the past month). A 43/27 ratio from a month ago has moved to a 54/35 ratio today.
Republicans are gleeful, Michael Barone see's 1946-like numbers:
In the off-year election of 1946, Republicans gained 13 seats in the Senate and emerged with a 51–45 majority there, the largest majority that they enjoyed between 1930 and 1980. They gained 55 seats in the House, giving them a 246–188 majority in that body, the largest majority they have held since 1930.
Neverminding the numbers for the moment, it's amazing that Barone writes an entire article aligning similarities, and comes up with the notion that Unions & Gov't Jobs (being continued in part by the stimulus) being the common parallel between '46 and '10. I like reading Barone's history lessons, but he fails to understand the underlying antagonism of '10 is the bailouts and giveaways to corporations (at the expense of individuals).
In '46, there was quite a bit of turmoil over the fact that Unions were doing a lot of striking for better wages and conditions. So, to draw a parallel with that happening, and the November '46 results is valid. To draw a parallel with the current anti-incumbent sentiment in '10 with a notion that people are angry that Gov't workers remain employed at middle-class wages is to really miss the landscape in favor of the viewpoint. But it gets to the point of why Republicans can't fully capitalize off of the political momentum against DC.
They are part of the problem. Even moreso than corruption or the deficit-producing budgets that came to represent the Repubicans of the '00's, Republicans are the party that has done more to tilt the favor to corporations over individuals than the Democrats. True, the Democrats over this cyle, with giveaways like the bank bailouts and mandates to buy corporate insurance, are not really providing an alternative. But that's just another aspect of the problem. People realize that if you throw these bums out, in favor of the last bums, that its not solving anything. And that, to me, is really the crux of the matter that results in the mind-boggling numbers of 65/28 in favor of throwing them all out.
It's not '94 and its not '46. The '10 cycle seems a new independent-minded voter altogether.
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