by Jerome Armstrong, Sun Apr 04, 2010 at 10:57:42 AM EDT
This process is well underway. The GOP has already chosen their dates, the week of August 27th. Most likely then, the Democrats will follow with theirs the week of September 3rd (which is labor day). It's CW that they wouldn't push it further back, but they might, which would mean it starts on the 10th of Sept, or even the 17th of Sept (I see alot of upside in doing this latter).
As for where the conventions will be, the GOP is out visiting cities. Right now, the Republicans seem to have narrowed their choices down to Phoenix, AZ; Tampa Bay FL; and Salt Lake City, UT. Dan Quayle is leading the charge for having it in Phoenix:
"I knew half of the committeemen who were there on the selection committee," Quayle told The Arizona Republic. "I had known them in the past, and I really buttonholed them and pushed hard - hard - for Phoenix."
Here's an article on Tampa Bay:
Tampa was a finalist for the 2004 and 2008 GOP conventions but lost to New York in 2004 and Minneapolis-St. Paul in 2008. Local Republicans believe the third time will be the charm, particularly because of the state's importance in the presidential election.
And SLC, well, that just seems a weird choice for the Republicans. I guess its a tip of the hat to Romney. My guess is that its a very close vote between FL and AZ, but that FL wins out because of its previous runner-up status, and the Republicans having lost the toss-up state in 2008. The GOP will decide by May or so.
For the Democrats, unlike in the last cycle, when Dean was very early in getting things settled, Kaine appears to be holding off and seeing what the Republicans decide first (its sorta a tradition to let the out of power party to go first with date & city).
I've thought that Charlotte North Carolina has had the inside track for a while now. SC's Don Fowler has been shepherding the cities pitch since last year (here, here, and here), Kaine is going to like that its' in the South, and Obama is going to want to keep NC in his column for '12. Gov. Beverly Perdue has gotten into the action; a Democratic Mayor is now in place in Charlotte.
A number of other cites have been mentioned in the running for the Democratic convention, including Phoenix, Tampa Bay, Dallas, and Philadelphia, but little but little has happened. It may be all but a done deal-- with Charlotte the choice. I was just in Phoenix, a lovely place to be in March, but unbearable in August. That said, I expect that which ever choice (FL or AZ) is runner-up for the Republicans, may get a serious look by the DNC. Perhaps there's some other city that might emerge as well, given how little movement that has happened at the DNC to date.
DCB brings up a complication for Charlotte, and its a big one:
Another big factor in St. Louis being chosen is that it is in a pro-Union state. Unlike other possible contenders like Charlotte, NC, St. Louis is union friendly which is a must for any Democratic Convention.
Could be that whether its "a must" becomes part of the change. I've a poll in the extended entry.
[UPDATE] The Democratic convention is going to be the week of Sept 3rd.