OH-Gov, OH-Sen: Democrats lead recent polls

A few months ago, Democrats were facing uphill battles in the Ohio races for governor and U.S. Senate. However, recent polls have been more encouraging. A new Quinnipac poll shows Governor Ted Strickland leading Republican John Kasich by 44 percent to 38 percent and both Democratic candidates, Lee Fisher and Jennifer Brunner, narrowly ahead of Republican Rob Portman in the U.S. Senate races, 40-37 and 40-36. Quinnipac was polling registered voters in Ohio, and polls that sample likely voters tend to produce better numbers for Republicans, but as you can see from the Pollster.com chart, several pollsters have found Strickland in a stronger position compared to a few months ago:

Here is the Pollster.com chart of Senate polls testing Portman against Fisher, who will probably win the Democratic primary next Tuesday.

It's not a big lead, but I'll take it in a state where unemployment is above the national average at 11 percent. Money will be a big problem for the Democratic nominee against Portman, who had $7.7 million cash on hand according to his latest FEC filing. Fisher had only about $907,000 on hand, and Brunner had just $59,000.

Share any thoughts about this year's Ohio elections in this thread.

Tags: OH-Sen, 2010 elections, Lee Fisher, Rob Portman, Jennifer Brunner, Ted Strickland, OH-GOV, John Kasich, OH-GOV, John Kasich (all tags)

Comments

8 Comments

oh wow

this is good news for a change.

by Charles Lemos 2010-04-29 02:36PM | 1 recs
No Love Lost for Brunner

It remains to be seen whether the money Lee Fisher will be spending in the primary battle will pay dividends in the general election in terms of defining his candidacy.  I think any campaign would like to determine how much money to spend and when to spend it without being forced to spend it early because of the exigencies of a largely unnecessary primary contest.  Brunner doesn't have a chance to win the primary and never did.  She is a decent public official and has run a pretty good office as Ohio Secretary of State. 

That said, her problem with rank and file Democrats such as myself has nothing to do with our relative preference for her over Lee Fisher or vice versa.  On the issues, they are not that different.  The problem for us is that the Secretary of State is one of three statewide offices that comprise the Ohio Apportionment Board- the other two offices being the Governor and the Auditor of State.  Currently, the Governor's office is held by Democrat Ted Strickland and the Auditor's office is held by Republican Mary Taylor.  The early betting is that Strickland & Taylor will win reelection. It has been largely assumed that Brunner would have won reelection if she chose to run for reelection as Secretary of State rather than pursue a futile attempt to win a Democratic primary for U.S. Senate against the former Ohio Attorney General and current Lieutenant Governor with excellent statewide name recognition.  By choosing this path, she makes the Office of Secretary of State vulnerable to a Republican pick-up by forfeiting the advantages of incumbency. 

You may have noticed that there is a census going on.  Following the census, the Ohio Apportionment Board will draw new state legislative districts.  Currently, the districts are an abomination following the last two gerrymandering efforts of the Republicans following the 1990 and 2000 censuses. If the Republicans control the Apportionment Board again, expect the districts to be as bad or worse than they are currently.  This will likely prevent a Democratic majority in the Ohio Senate and may result in the Republicans retaking the Ohio House of Representatives regardless of what the statewide vote for each party turns out to be.  Once the Republicans solidify their legislative majorities, the next stop is Congressional redistricting which will be controlled by the gerrymandered Republican legislature.  With Ohio likely to lose Congressional representation, who do you think the Republicans will target?  That is why the decision of Brunner to run for Senate matters to anyone interested in a progressive Ohio legislature and, ultimately, a progressive Democratic Congress.  I think that means anybody who considers herself or himself a progressive whether they are a rank and file Ohio Democrat or not.  

by New Dealer 2010-04-29 03:11PM | 0 recs
Mary Taylor is running for lieutenant governor

Mary Taylor is running as John Kasich's running mate.

David Pepper, Hamilton county Commissioner and former Cincinnati city councilman, will be the Dem candidate for auditor.  He is the son of John Pepper, well-regarded former Procter & Gamble president, and therefore, he has been well-funded in past campaigns.

I believe the Republicans have a primary for their auditor candidate.

 

 

by susie 2010-04-29 03:32PM | 0 recs
RE: Mary Taylor is running for lieutenant governor

I stand corrected. Thank you.

by New Dealer 2010-04-29 03:37PM | 0 recs
RE: Mary Taylor is running for lieutenant governor

The problem is that not realizing that Mary Taylor will not be running for auditor sort of deflates your premise.

Jennifer Brunner is by far the superior Dem. candidate for US Senator.  She is a smart, proactive gutsy Secretary of State.  She has shown her strong character in not bowing to the pols who would have wished her out of the race.

Unfortunately, due partially to Sen Menendez of NJ denying her national Dem. funding, she has had to run a low-budget race.  However, the grassroots are behind her, and she may pull off a win.

Lee Fisher has run state-wide in the past and has not ever won.  I don't see him beating Rob Portman, despite Portman's record of working with Bush administration. 

It would be great to have a strong, smart woman represent Ohio in the US Senate.

by susie 2010-05-01 02:42AM | 0 recs
money chase

Since Strickland is a spectacular  campaigner and superior to Kasich, the overlay of campaign commercials will assist the Democratic nominee in the Senate race whoever he is to catch up to Portman just like Strickland helped Brown in 2006. On top of that, the HIR debate has galvanized the Democrats to come out to vote, otherwise we would of had a typical midterm election year drop off and the Dems  should be in fairly good shape in Ohio.

by olawakandi 2010-04-29 10:57PM | 0 recs
money chase

Since Strickland is a spectacular  campaigner and superior to Kasich, the overlay of campaign commercials will assist the Democratic nominee in the Senate race whoever he is to catch up to Portman just like Strickland helped Brown in 2006. On top of that, the HIR debate has galvanized the Democrats to come out to vote, otherwise we would of had a typical midterm election year drop off and the Dems  should be in fairly good shape in Ohio.

by olawakandi 2010-04-29 10:57PM | 0 recs
RE: OH-Gov, OH-Sen: Democrats lead recent polls

If Strickland can get Ohio Third Frontier extended and educate Ohio of how it has helped the state's economy, it may benefit him.  Third Frontier created about 60,000 new jobs since '02 and brought/capitalized over 600 companies.  The proposed extension is estimated to create more jobs, something Ohio (as well as any other state) needs.

The voters of Ohio don't know about it enough, or its successes, so that poses a bit of a problem that could be solved.  

I'm not sure what the rest of Ohio thinks, but Strickland recently came out against the AZ immigration law.

 

Also, United Auto Workers recently endorsed Lee Fisher.

by Chuckie Corra 2010-04-30 04:40AM | 0 recs

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