UK voting tectonic, not tactical, with Lib Dems
by Jerome Armstrong, Sun Apr 18, 2010 at 02:19:39 PM EDT
Here's a fine description of the tectonic, not tactical, shift that has happened in the UK:
What we've seen over the past 48 hours is the possibility of a genuinely new approach. Instead of playing by the political establishment's rules, we have a real chance now of doing something genuinely disruptive. Not only would more it lead to more Lib Dem MPs voting for a genuinely democratic political system, a high Lib Dem share of the vote will illustrate perfectly why one is so badly needed.
Tories and Labour are going on about how the system is not going to let the Lib Dems win anyway, as they are still stuck in their tactical mindset of how many seats will give them a plurality. They've missed that the plurality of people have already accepted a hung Parliament as a good thing--- that of disrupting the status quo.
As James Graham point out, its going to lead to an even larger disruption, when the results kick in; especially if Labour in 3rd, has the most seats. The "result as a travesty" is actually a great thing for true reform to happen.
.....if you want a "well" hung parliament, your strategy should be very simple indeed: vote Lib Dem. Not only will that guarantee a Lib Dem bloc in parliament holding the balance of power, it will discredit the electoral system itself.
...That is why I suspect the far simpler message of the Rage Against the Machine/Vote Lib Dem Facebook group is having more resonance amongst the public. What is needed at this stage is not nuanced psephological arguments but a clear, disruptive, brutal message: vote Liberal Democrat and change the system.
The Lib Dems are starting to show some distance now between themselves and both Labour and Conservatives with the use of internet mobilizing and viral persuasion. As Mark Pack points out, the Lib Dem group linked above on Facebook now has more members than any establishment UK political group, a first he thinks.
From a US perspective, that seems odd, because our volunteer campaigns start so much earlier than do the official ones. Its the shortened time-span of the UK politics. With just under three weeks till the election, the Lib Dems fortunes have wildly reversed.
With the surge of Clegg, some are pointing to the 18 or so days left, as more than enough time for Clegg to fade and go right back to where the Lib Dems were. Again, that seems totally odd from a US perspective-- that such momentum would dissipate almost as quickly as it happened. When we see a peak like this in the US, with 2-3 weeks out to the election, its usually too late for the opposition to stall it, much less make it go away; late adopters and laggards bring it out a month. It seems more likely that Clegg's numbers go even higher rather than fade back.
Here's the Sunday night roundup of the polls and projections.